SWOMCD
SPC MCD 281919
WIZ000-MNZ000-282215-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0052
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0119 PM CST FRI JAN 28 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...NERN MN...MN ARROWHEAD INTO NORTHWEST WI
CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW
VALID 281919Z - 282215Z
HEAVY SNOW MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MUCH AS SUGGESTED BY RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS...EVAPORATIVE COOLING OF
PRECIPITATION FALLING FROM HIGH-LEVEL CONVECTION DOWNSTREAM OF A
SIGNIFICANT DIGGING SHORT WAVE IMPULSE IS LIKELY SATURATING THE
MID-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST MINNESOTA INTO
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SURFACE SNOW RATES
APPEARS PROBABLE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WITH THE APPROACH OF
THE UPPER IMPULSE...AS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT INCREASES ALONG A
STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ORIENTED LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC
BAROCLINIC ZONE. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT LIFT ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
MINNESOTA WILL BECOME MAXIMIZED WITHIN THE LAYER FAVORABLE FOR LARGE
DENDRITIC ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH BY 21-23Z... GENERALLY ALONG A CORRIDOR
CENTERED NEAR/WEST OF INTERNATIONAL FALLS INTO AREAS NEAR/EAST OF
DULUTH. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR 1 INCH PER HOUR SNOW
RATES...WHICH COULD EXPAND SOUTHEASTWARD INTO PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN
WISCONSIN BY 00-02Z...BEFORE FORCING WANES AND SPREADS OFF TO THE
EAST SOUTHEAST LATER THIS EVENING.
..KERR.. 01/28/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...
LAT...LON 48649315 48089176 47419118 46499042 45629095 45659213
46149274 46799310 48309381 48649315
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