SWODY1
SPC AC 031214
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0614 AM CST THU FEB 03 2011
VALID 031300Z - 041200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
AN EXPANSIVE UPPER TROUGH IS IN PLACE THIS MORNING OVER THE
CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES...WITH COLD AND RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS
EVERYWHERE BUT FL. A SURFACE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN FL PENINSULA...AND IS PROVIDING A
FOCUS FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS SUGGEST THIS
THREAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE SLOWLY
DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON.
FARTHER WEST...INCREASING LARGE SCALE FORCING AND LOW LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN AN EXPANDING AREA OF PRECIPITATION THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT OVER THE GULF COAST STATES. MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS VERY WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY /CENTERED AROUND
600MB/ WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST TX/SOUTHWEST LA. THIS AREA MAY
SEE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES IN THE MOST ORGANIZED SHOWERS TONIGHT.
..HART/GRAMS.. 02/03/2011
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