SWODY1
SPC AC 061255
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0655 AM CST SUN FEB 06 2011
VALID 061300Z - 071200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
BROAD...SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE LARGE SCALE TROUGH WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
LWR 48 THIS PERIOD...DOWNSTREAM FROM HIGH AMPLITUDE E PACIFIC RIDGE.
IN RESPONSE TO ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES MOVING SE FROM THE CNTRL
ROCKIES...SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW OVER ERN NM SHOULD AMPLIFY AS IT
CONTINUES ESE ACROSS TX THROUGH EARLY MON. THIS LIKELY WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY ACCELERATION AND STRENGTHENING OF ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM ERN OK TO W CNTRL TX. THE FRONT SHOULD
REACH THE LWR MS VLY BY 12Z MON. FARTHER E...W-E FRONT NOW STALLED
OVER THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO/CNTRL FL MAY EDGE NWD LATER IN THE
PERIOD WITH THE CONTINUED EWD MOTION/AMPLIFICATION OF NM/TX
TROUGH...BUT NO WHOLESALE NWD MOTION IS EXPECTED.
...E TX/LWR MS VLY/GULF CST...
INCREASED FORCING FOR ASCENT...MID LVL COLD ADVECTION...AND MODEST
ELEVATED MOISTURE INFLOW MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
CONVECTION/SCTD TSTMS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT OVER PARTS OF E TX LATE
THIS AFTN OR EARLY THIS EVE. THIS ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE INTO A SMALL
ELEVATED BAND THAT CONTINUES E INTO LA LATER IN THE EVE. A FEW
STORMS ALSO MAY FORM TONIGHT AND EARLY MON NEAR THE LA/MS GULF
CST...IN AREA OF STRENGTHENING WAA N OF AFOREMENTIONED SFC
FRONT...ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST STORMS SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE.
LIMITED MOISTURE SUPPLY /PW AOB .75 INCHES/ SHOULD LIMIT UPDRAFT
INTENSITY AND DURATION.
..CORFIDI/STOPPKOTTE.. 02/06/2011
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