SWODY1
SPC AC 171628
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1028 AM CST THU FEB 17 2011
VALID 171630Z - 181200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...COASTAL NORTH-CENTRAL CA...
SHOWERS/SOME TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INLAND ACROSS CA COAST
AREAS IN VICINITY OF SAN FRANCISCO TODAY...AS A SPEED MAX/ASSOCIATED
FRONTAL BAND PIVOTS EASTWARD ONSHORE. ASSOCIATED MOIST INFLUX WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO DEWPOINTS INCREASING THROUGH THE 40S F...WITH WEAK
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY UP TO A FEW HUNDRED J/KG SBCAPE SUPPORTIVE
OF SOME SUSTAINED TSTMS MAINLY FOR THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS. WITH
THE POSSIBILITY OF NEAR-SURFACE ROOTED CONVECTION...BACKED SOUTHERLY
LOW LEVEL WINDS WITH 0-1 KM SRH AROUND 150-200 M2/S2 COULD SUPPORT
SOME MARGINAL UPDRAFT ROTATION AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO.
...UPPER GREAT LAKES...
WITH THE EXPECTED ARRIVAL OF A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH PER WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY...AN ADDITIONAL ROUND OF ISOLATED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE REGION AGAIN TONIGHT.
...OZARKS/LOWER MO VALLEY LATE TONIGHT...
HAVE INTRODUCED A MARGINAL/LOW PROBABILITY OF TSTMS FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN MO AND IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT SOUTHEAST KS/NORTHEAST OK FOR
LATE TONIGHT. WITH 12Z NAM/ETA-KF CONTROL FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATIVE OF MOISTENING/DECREASING INHIBITION POST-09Z...A FEW
ELEVATED TSTMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST-ADVANCING
FRONTAL ZONE WITHIN A WARM/MOIST ADVECTION SCENARIO.
..GUYER/GRAMS.. 02/17/2011
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