DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 201606
SWODY1
SPC AC 201605

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1005 AM CST SUN FEB 20 2011

VALID 201630Z - 211200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

ALTHOUGH THE PRIMARY TROUGH POSITION REMAINS OVER THE WRN U.S. A
STRONG S/WV AND ACCOMPANYING JET MAX MOVES FROM SRN ROCKIES ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID MS VALLEY BY 12Z MON. SURFACE LOW OVER
WRN KS THIS AM DEVELOPS EWD ACROSS SRN IA/NRN MO BY THIS EVENING AND
THEN BECOMES AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG E/W FRONTAL
ZONE TO DELMARVA. IN WAKE OF SFC LOW COLD ARCTIC AIR PUSHES SWD THRU
CENTRAL INTO SRN PLAINS BY MON AM.

GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FLOW NEWD AHEAD OF LOW AND ARCTIC FRONT
THRU SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MID MS VALLEY. HOWEVER POOR LOW LAPSE
RATES ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIMIT BOTH SURFACE
INSTABILITY AND MAINTAIN CONSIDERABLE CINH THRU MUCH OF FORECAST
PERIOD.

...CENTRAL PLAINS TO SRN GREAT LAKES...
LOW LVL WAA SUPPORTS CURRENT TSTMS LWR MO/MID MS VLYS. THESE
ELEVATED STORMS ARE IN THE EXIT REGION OF THE APPROACHING STRONG MID
LEVEL JET AND SHOULD SHIFT E OR ENE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WHILE
SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE JET...A
GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IN THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED AS THE EXIT
REGION MOVES BEYOND PLUME OF STEEPER MID LVL LAPSE RATES.

ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FOCUS IN AREA OF STRONGER
FORCING FOR ASCENT/FRONTAL UPLIFT OVER THE CNTRL PLNS/LWR MO
VLY...AHEAD OF POSITIVE-TILT SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWEEPING ENE. ASCENT
MAY BE ENHANCED BY LOW LVL CONVERGENCE INVOF SFC LOW/COLD FRONT.
WIND PROFILES WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINED STORMS ALONG COLD
FRONT IN ERN KS/WRN MO LATER TODAY/EARLY TONIGHT. FCST SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW WARM/STABLE LAYER AROUND 500-600 MB THAT SHOULD
LIMIT DEEP CONVECTION IN THE WARM SECTOR.

...GRT BASIN...
SCTD MAINLY DIURNAL STORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE GREAT BASIN
THIS PERIOD IN ZONE OF STEEP LOW TO MID LVL LAPSE RATES BENEATH UPR
TROUGH.

..HALES/STOPPKOTTE.. 02/20/2011

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