SWODY1
SPC AC 261627
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1027 AM CST SAT FEB 26 2011
VALID 261630Z - 271200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ESEWD FROM CENTRAL CA TO THE
LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. COLD TEMPERATURES
ALOFT AND LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7 C/KM WILL SUPPORT
WEAK SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN CA COAST AND
COASTAL RANGES...AN AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED
LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS. LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO
TONIGHT...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SW AZ
WHERE ASCENT WILL BE FOCUSED IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE
MID-UPPER JET.
FARTHER E...MOISTURE RETURN IS UNDERWAY ACROSS S/SE TX WHERE
BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS OF 68-70 F ARE SPREADING INLAND.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS TX AS A RESULT OF
LINGERING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND NO CLEAR FOCUS FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...INCREASING LOW-LEVEL WAA AND LOW-MIDLEVEL
MOISTENING FROM AR INTO TN/KY COULD SUPPORT A FEW ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.
..THOMPSON/SMITH.. 02/26/2011
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