SWODY1
SPC AC 191932
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0132 PM CST SAT FEB 19 2011
VALID 192000Z - 201200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
NO CHANGES FOR THE 20Z OUTLOOK.
..BROYLES.. 02/19/2011
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST SAT FEB 19 2011/
OVERALL LARGE SCALE PATTERN BECOMING MORE PROGRESSIVE AS COLD TROUGH
ALONG W COAST SHIFTS INLAND AND RIDGE MOVES FROM PLAINS TO MS VALLEY
BY 12Z SUN. S/WV TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED VIGOROUS JET NOW MOVING INTO
AZ WILL REACH CENTRAL PLAINS LATER TONIGHT WHILE COLD UPPER LOW JUST
OFF NRN CA COAST THIS MORNING SPREADS A COLD UNSTABLE AIR MASS SEWD
THRU CA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS IT MOVES INLAND.
SLY FLOW AND WARM INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR MASS CONTINUES TO SPREAD
NWD THRU THE SRN INTO CENTRAL PLAINS. AS SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS LEE OF
CENTRAL ROCKIES IN RESPONSE TO APPROACH OF SWRN U.S. IMPULSE AND JET
MAX...EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT WILL BY THIS EVENING EXTEND FROM SURFACE
LOW EWD ACROSS KS INTO LWR MO VALLEY.
...CENTRAL PLAINS/LWR MO VALLEY...
ABSENCE OF ANY UPR LVL FORCING MECHANISM FOR ASCENT...AND MID LVL
WARMING/STRENGTHENING EML CAP...SUGGEST THAT TSTM POTENTIAL WILL
REMAIN TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY CONDITIONAL SVR PROBABILITIES OVER REGION
IN THE WARM SECTOR. DURING THE DAY ISOLD TSTMS MAY FORM IN AREA OF
STRONGEST ELEVATED MOISTURE INFLUX/WAA ASCENT OVER PARTS OF ERN KS
AND MO.
MORE WIDESPREAD TSTM COVERAGE SHOULD DEVELOP TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SUN FARTHER N AND NE...FROM NRN KS INTO MUCH OF NEB/THE LWR MO VLY
IN ZONE OF SUBSTANTIALLY STRONGER ELEVATED WAA THAT SHOULD EVOLVE N
OF WARM FRONT. WITH PW INCREASING TO AROUND 1 INCH AND ELEVATED
LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7C/KM COULD YIELD A FEW POCKETS OF MUCAPE
IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG...SUFFICIENT FOR SVR HAIL GIVEN MODERATE
LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WSWLY CLOUD-LAYER FLOW. THUS WILL MAINTAIN A
LOW SVR HAIL PROB FOR TONIGHT.
...CNTRL CA...
BAND OF LOW TOPPED CONVECTION INCLUDING A FEW TSTMS WILL MOVE INLAND
ALONG THE CNTRL CA CST AND THEN OVER THE CNTRL VLY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE ARRIVAL OF COOLER AIR ALOFT WITH MAIN UPR
TROUGH. WHILE SMALL HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY SOME CELLS...NEITHER
STRENGTH OF SHEAR NOR DEGREE OF INSTABILITY APPEAR LIKELY TO SUPPORT
SUSTAINED SVR ACTIVITY.
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