Saturday, February 26, 2011

DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 261938
SWODY1
SPC AC 261936

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0136 PM CST SAT FEB 26 2011

VALID 262000Z - 271200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS/FORECAST...
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO ONGOING TSTM AREA FORECASTS...WITH LITTLE
CHANGE IN FORECAST REASONING AS BELOW.

..GUYER.. 02/26/2011

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 AM CST SAT FEB 26 2011/

...SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG MIDLEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ESEWD FROM CENTRAL CA TO THE
LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. COLD TEMPERATURES
ALOFT AND LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7 C/KM WILL SUPPORT
WEAK SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SRN CA COAST AND
COASTAL RANGES...AN AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED
LOW-TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS. LATER THIS EVENING AND INTO
TONIGHT...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS SW AZ
WHERE ASCENT WILL BE FOCUSED IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE
MID-UPPER JET.

FARTHER E...MOISTURE RETURN IS UNDERWAY ACROSS S/SE TX WHERE
BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS OF 68-70 F ARE SPREADING INLAND.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS TX AS A RESULT OF
LINGERING CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND NO CLEAR FOCUS FOR STORM
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...INCREASING LOW-LEVEL WAA AND LOW-MIDLEVEL
MOISTENING FROM AR INTO TN/KY COULD SUPPORT A FEW ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.

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