SWODY1
SPC AC 221927
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0127 PM CST TUE FEB 22 2011
VALID 222000Z - 231200Z
...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...20Z OUTLOOK UPDATE...
A SURFACE OR NEAR SURFACE-BASED CONVECTIVE LAYER REMAINS DEEPEST IN
THE VICINITY OF PUGET SOUND. HOWEVER...FURTHER DEEPENING IS
PROBABLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...SOUTHWARD ALONG
WASHINGTON COASTAL AREAS AND THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE CASCADES...AS
MID-LEVEL LIFT AND COOLING OCCUR IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SLOWLY
AMPLIFYING TROUGH NEAR THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST. IT IS STILL NOT
CLEAR...THOUGH...THAT THIS WILL BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR ANYTHING
BEYOND PERHAPS ONE OR TWO BRIEF WEAK THUNDERSTORMS PRIOR TO 12Z
WEDNESDAY. SO...PRIOR OUTLOOK REMAINS UNCHANGED.
..KERR.. 02/22/2011
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1009 AM CST TUE FEB 22 2011/
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WILL SPREAD SWD THRU THE PAC NW IN RESPONSE
TO DEEPENING COLD TROUGH OVER THE AREA. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WILL BE
COMMON PARTICULARLY OVER AND W OF CASCADES GIVEN THE CONTINUED
ONSHORE FLOW HOWEVER THREAT FOR ANY LIGHTNING IS LOW GIVEN THE
SHALLOW NATURE OF THE ACTIVITY. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL OF AN
ISOLATED STRIKE ALONG AND JUST OFFSHORE WA/NWRN OR COAST WHERE
INSTABILITY WILL BE A LITTLE GREATER AS WELL AS WITH AREAS OF
ENHANCED CONVERGENCE SUCH AS THE PSCZ IN NWRN WA.
ELSEWHERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.
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