SWODY2
SPC AC 191727
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1127 AM CST SAT FEB 19 2011
VALID 201200Z - 211200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 90 TO 110 KT MID-LEVEL JET WILL
EJECT ENEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS SUNDAY. AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE...STRONG LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS WILL
TRANSPORT MOISTURE QUICKLY NWD RESULTING IN A BROAD MOIST AXIS FROM
WCNTRL TX NWD ACROSS OK...KS INTO SRN NEB. DUE TO THE FAST EWD
PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD ONLY
REACH THE MID TO UPPER 50S F IN THE CNTRL PLAINS WHICH WILL LIKELY
KEEP INSTABILITY RELATIVELY WEAK AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH.
STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NOSE OF WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL JET SHOULD
PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS IN NEB SUNDAY MORNING.
THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT SPREADING THE CONVECTION EWD INTO THE
UPPER MS VALLEY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS SFC TEMP WARM AND A COLD FRONT
MOVES QUICKLY INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST...NEW CELLS SHOULD
INITIATE ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND SPREAD EWD INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THESE STORMS MAY CONTINUE
EWD INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT BUT MODEL FORECASTS REDUCE
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE WITH EWD EXTENT. DUE TO WEAK INSTABILITY...NO
SEVERE THREAT IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE EJECTING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT.
FURTHER TO THE WEST...ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SFC HEATING...STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN
UT AND WRN CO SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
..BROYLES.. 02/19/2011
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