MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0125

ACUS11 KWNS 241714
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 241713
MOZ000-IAZ000-KSZ000-NEZ000-242315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0125
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1113 AM CST THU FEB 24 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NEB...NERN KS...NWRN MO...SWRN IA

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 241713Z - 242315Z

MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES FROM NEAR MANHATTAN KS TO WHITEMAN AFB IN
MO NWD TO THE KANSAS CITY METRO AREA WERE BEING REPORTED AS OF 17Z.
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED STRONG ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO THE N OF THE
AREA AND SFC TEMPERATURES SHOULD EVENTUALLY FALL BELOW FREEZING
THROUGH WET BULB PROCESSES AND WEAK LOW LEVEL CAA. EXPECT PRECIP
TYPE TO CHANGE TO ALL SNOW BY AROUND 19-20Z.

17Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED A WARM FRONT FROM ERN OK ACROSS CNTRL AR.
ISENTROPIC ASCENT OVER THE FRONT WILL WRAP ABUNDANT MOISTURE AROUND
MID LEVEL LOW /LOCATED OVER SRN KS/NRN OK AT 18Z PER 12Z NAM
FORECAST/ INTO MCD AREA. FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE ENHANCED BY
INCREASING DEEP LAYER FLOW /850 MB WINDS 40 KT...50KT AT 500MB/ AND
A VORTICITY MAX LIFTING NEWD FROM SERN KS INTO NWRN MO THROUGH 21Z.
12Z NAM FORECASTS ALSO INDICATE MODEST POTENTIAL FOR SLANTWISE
CONVECTION AND BANDED PRECIPITATION.

MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE OVER SRN PORTIONS OF
THE MCD AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THEREAFTER...ALL SNOW IS
EXPECTED WITH RATES APPROACHING ONE INCH PER HOUR BY 20-21Z.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END BY EARLY EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ADVANCED EWD RATHER QUICKLY.

..STOPPKOTTE.. 02/24/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...GID...

LAT...LON 38849671 38679590 38599505 38729397 38999328 39299272
39489244 39789224 40029222 40309227 40529236 40789269
40909299 40979334 41019375 41039429 41039486 40969539
40789597 40559659 40289705 39949742 39589754 39229738
38849671

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