DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 071949
SWODY1
SPC AC 071947

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0147 PM CST MON MAR 07 2011

VALID 072000Z - 081200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN AZ AND NWRN NM...
SCATTERED CONVECTION WITH ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES CONTINUES TO
MOVE EWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN AZ EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND
IS FORECAST TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER NWRN NM BY MID AFTERNOON.
GIVEN STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...40 KT FLOW THROUGH 3 KM
AGL...AND STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE MOBILE S/W
TROUGH...STRONG CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
HOWEVER...POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS IS EXPECTED TO
BE TOO CONDITIONAL TO SUPPORT AN UPGRADE TO 5 PERCENT WIND
PROBABILITY.

...ERN OK...WRN AR...NERN TX...
AS THE SWRN CONUS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE SRN PLAINS...50 KT LLJ
WILL DEVELOP OVER TX/OK TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS
THIS OCCURS...MOISTURE WILL RAPIDLY RETURN NWD ACROSS THE REGION
ATOP A STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS. THIS MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH
STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH WAA
REGIME...WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT LIFT AND DESTABILIZATION FOR
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NEAR 08/12Z. THEREFORE...EXPANDED
THE 10 PERCENT THUNDER LINE EWD AND SWD ACROSS ERN OK/WRN AR AND
NERN TX.

..GARNER/EDWARDS.. 03/07/2011

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1014 AM CST MON MAR 07 2011/

VIGOROUS S/WV TROUGH ENTERING AZ THIS AM WELL DEPICTED ON THE W/V
IMAGERY AND CONCENTRATED 500MB HEIGHT FALL CENTER. BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...12Z TUE...THE SYSTEM ENTERS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AREA OF ASCENT AND MID LEVEL COOLING. WITH
SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO SWRN OK LATER TONIGHT...STRENGTHENING LOW
LEVEL JET WILL BEGIN TO BRING A MODIFIED GULF AIR MASS NWD THRU TX
AND OK. HOWEVER THUNDERSTORMS THRU MUCH OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE AREA OF WEAK INSTABILITY...STEEP LAPSE RATES
AND ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER SYSTEM ACROSS SWRN U.S. AND SRN
ROCKIES.

WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW MAY RESULT IN SOME ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD AS FAR EAST AS SOUTHERN
KS/NORTHERN OK. SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH ANY OF THE
CONVECTION TODAY DUE TO THE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...BUT NO
SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED.

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