SWODY1
SPC AC 141958
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0258 PM CDT MON MAR 14 2011
VALID 142000Z - 151200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CNTRL GULF STATES...
NO APPRECIABLE CHANGES TO ONGOING OUTLOOK.
BAND OF TSTMS INTENSIFIED OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO WEAKENING CINH AND ASCENT PROVIDED BY THE
COMPACT...OZARK PLATEAU UPPER LOW. STORM MODE REMAINS LARGELY
LINEAR WITH OCCASIONAL BOWING STRUCTURES INDICATIVE OF DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. MODEST DESTABILIZATION DOWNSTREAM OF THE BAND AND A
GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING WIND FIELD WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A CONTINUED
THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.
EVENTUALLY...STORMS WILL BEGIN TO ENCOUNTER A MORE STABLE/HOSTILE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT FARTHER E ACROSS ERN AL RESULTING IN A
WEAKENING TREND LATER THIS EVENING. SRN FRINGES OF THE LINE MAY
CONTINUE TO OFFER A RISK OF ISOLATED SEVERE INTO THE OVERNIGHT ALONG
THE CNTRL GULF COAST.
..RACY.. 03/14/2011
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT MON MAR 14 2011/
...SERN TX/LOWER MS VALLEY/CNTRL GULF STATES THROUGH THIS EVENING...
REMNANT NOCTURNAL QLCS EXTENDING FROM THE MS DELTA REGION SWWD TO
NEAR HOU AS OF 16Z IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY TODAY OVER THE
LOWER MS VALLEY...DRIVEN BY THE LEADING EDGE OF HEIGHT FALLS/DYNAMIC
FORCING ATTENDANT TO MIDLEVEL LOW ADVANCING THROUGH THE OZARK
PLATEAU. WHILE NOT OVERLY MOIST...LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND
SATELLITE-DERIVED PW IMAGERY INDICATE THAT AMBIENT INFLOW AIR MASS
TO QLCS IS CHARACTERIZED BY DEW POINTS RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER
50S NRN MS TO MID/UPPER 60S TX COASTAL PLAIN WITH PW VALUES OF
1.0-1.5 INCHES. ANTECEDENT CLOUDS WILL LIMIT DAYTIME
HEATING...THOUGH CORRIDORS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL BE POSSIBLE
BY AFTERNOON WHERE MLCAPE WILL APPROACH 1000-1500 J/KG.
CURRENT VWP/PROFILER DATA AND MODEL-DERIVED FORECAST HODOGRAPHS
SUGGEST THAT VERTICAL WIND PROFILES WILL REMAIN LARGELY
UNIDIRECTIONAL WITH A BELT OF 40-50+ KT MIDLEVEL FLOW CONTRIBUTING
TO 35-45 KT OF DEEP SWLY SHEAR. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS PARTS
OF WRN AND MIDDLE TN/NRN MS/NWRN AL THIS AFTERNOON WHERE
ISALLOBARICALLY BACKED SURFACE WINDS INVOF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
YIELD LARGER LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE. LATEST
CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THE
PRIMARY CONVECTIVE MODE WILL REMAIN LINEAR WITH GREATEST RISK FOR
LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS EXISTING THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING FROM
PORTIONS OF CNTRL/SERN LA EWD THROUGH MS INTO WRN AL. WHILE A BRIEF
TORNADO OR TWO IS POSSIBLE...MARGINAL INSTABILITY COINCIDENT WITH
AFOREMENTIONED STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WILL LIKELY
PRECLUDE A MORE ROBUST THREAT.
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