SWODY1
SPC AC 160432
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1132 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2011
VALID 161200Z - 171200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...MID ATLANTIC AND SRN NEW ENGLAND COASTS...
WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACCOMPANYING AN UPPER IMPULSE WILL MOVE
FROM THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH MID
AFTERNOON. AIRMASS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE
CHARACTERIZED BY SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S AND WEAK
INSTABILITY...WHICH MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AT THE START
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS ACTIVITY WILL THEN MOVE EWD AND
GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO OFFSHORE WATERS BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
...PACIFIC NW...
TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION...CONTRIBUTING TO FURTHER
COOLING OF MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES /AOB -30C AT 500 MB/. STEEP LAPSE
RATE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE PRESENT AS A RESULT...CONTRIBUTING TO WEAK
INSTABILITY AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL. GIVEN THE VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL.
...GREAT BASIN/INTERMOUNTAIN W...
UPPER JET WILL SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE REGION BY
AFTERNOON...ACCOMPANIED BY COOLING MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES AND
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES. MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP AS A
RESULT...WHICH WILL FAVOR A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
...MID MS VALLEY TO LWR LK MI...
LOW-LEVEL 30-40 KT SWLY JET WILL BECOME POSITIONED OVER THE REGION
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AIDING IN STRENGTHENING NOCTURNAL
MOISTURE ADVECTION/WAA REGIME. AROUND 500 J/KG OF MUCAPE ROOTED NEAR
850 MB MAY FAVOR LATE PERIOD ELEVATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
..GARNER/GOSS.. 03/16/2011
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