DAY1SVR: Day 1 Convective Outlook

ACUS01 KWNS 161251
SWODY1
SPC AC 161249

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0749 AM CDT WED MAR 16 2011

VALID 161300Z - 171200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
LOW AMPLITUDE WSW FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WRN AND CNTRL U.S.
...IN WAKE OF PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CROSSING/EXITING THE ERN
STATES. RELATIVELY DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AT LWR
LVLS...ALTHOUGH AT LEAST MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN WILL
BEGIN OVER TX LATER IN THE PERIOD.

...MID ATLANTIC/SRN NEW ENGLAND CSTS...
SCTD CONVECTION/TSTMS EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN AREA OF WEAK ELEVATED
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF LEAD ERN SHORTWAVE IMPULSE /NOW OVER MD-PA/.
THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PRIMARILY BE CONFINED TO THE OFFSHORE
WATERS...ESPECIALLY BY EARLY AFTERNOON. APPROACH OF SECOND UPR
DISTURBANCE /NOW OVER THE OH VLY/ MAY SUPPORT A BAND OF TWO OF
SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THIS EVE ALONG OR JUST OFF THE NC CST.

...PAC NW...
BROAD LARGE-SCALE TROUGHING ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION...MAINTAINING SEASONABLY COOL MID-LVL TEMPS /AOB -30C AT 500
MB/. A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW APPROACHING THE ORE CST WILL FURTHER
STEEPEN MID LAPSE RATES/ENHANCE ASCENT...CONTRIBUTING TO WEAK
INSTABILITY AND A POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS. GIVEN THE VERY COOL
PROFILES...A FEW STORMS MAY YIELD SMALL HAIL.

...GRT BASIN/INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...
AFOREMENTIONED JET IMPULSE WILL MOVE ENE ACROSS REGION BY AFTN...
ACCOMPANIED BY MID-LVL COOLING/ASCENT. THIS COULD SUPPORT ISOLD
TSTMS GIVEN DEGREE OF SFC HEATING EXPECTED.

...MID MS VALLEY TO LWR LK MI...
30-40 KT SWLY LLJ JET WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER REGION TONIGHT
...STRENGTHENING MOISTURE INFLOW/WAA. AROUND 500 J/KG OF MUCAPE
ROOTED NEAR 850 MB MAY SUPPORT A FEW SPOTS OF ISOLD ELEVATED
CONVECTION/STORMS LATE IN THE PERIOD OVER PARTS OF MO/IA/IL.

..CORFIDI/JIRAK.. 03/16/2011

+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.