SWODY1
SPC AC 190056
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0756 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2011
VALID 190100Z - 191200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SWRN TX...
EARLY THIS EVENING A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM NRN AR SWWD THROUGH
SWRN TX NEAR MIDLAND AND IS MOVING SWD. ISOLATED STORMS HAVE BEEN
DEVELOPING IN VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY AS WELL AS OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SWRN TX. OUTFLOW FROM THE SWRN TX CONVECTION HAS MERGED
WITH THE FRONT RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING NEAR THE
MIDLAND AREA. MODIFIED CP AIR WITH UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50F DEWPOINTS
HAVE ADVECTED INTO SWRN TX BENEATH WARM EML WITH 700-500 MB LAPSE
RATES FROM 8-8.5 C/KM AND 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE. DESPITE PRESENCE OF
CAP AND WEAK UPPER FORCING...MESOSCALE LIFT OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AND ALONG THE FRONT AS WELL AS DIABATIC WARMING OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT. TENDENCY HAS
BEEN FOR STORMS TO MOVE ONTO THE COOL SIDE OF FRONT WHERE VERTICAL
SHEAR IS AT LEAST MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS. THREAT FOR
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL PERSIST THROUGH ABOUT 03Z...BUT ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS NOCTURNAL COOLING COMMENCES.
...TX AND OK PANHANDLES THROUGH WRN OK AND SRN KS...
THETA-E ADVECTION ALONG STRENGTHENING NOCTURNAL LLJ ACROSS WRN TX
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO NWD DESTABILIZATION AND INCREASING ISENTROPIC
LIFT NORTH OF FRONT FROM THE TX PANHANDLE INTO WRN OK. EFFECTIVE
SHEAR FROM 35-40 KT AND MUCAPE INCREASING TO NEAR 1000 J/KG MAY
BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR A THREAT OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL IF STORMS
INITIATE WITHIN DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION REGIME LATE TONIGHT.
..DIAL.. 03/19/2011
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