SWODY1
SPC AC 041239
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0639 AM CST FRI MAR 04 2011
VALID 041300Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OK/AR/MO...
...ERN KS/NRN MO/IL THIS AFTERNOON...
MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A COUPLE OF LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER
TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES. THE LEAD
TROUGH IS CURRENTLY OVER CO/NM AND WILL TRACK INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY HELP INITIATE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF EASTERN KS ACROSS MO BY MID
AFTERNOON...AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS EVENING. COLD MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ALONG THIS AXIS...LEADING TO
RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL ELEVATED CAPE. A FEW OF
THE STRONGER STORMS WILL POSE A THREAT OF HAIL ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MO/IL THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HOWEVER...ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
...OK/TX/AR/SRN MO...
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THE SECOND AND STRONGER UPPER
TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY AND MOVE INTO TX/OK. THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
BE POSITIVELY TILTED AND SLOW TO EJECT ACROSS THE PLAINS.
ALSO...FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OK/TX SHOW A CAPPING
INVERSION THAT WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.
PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT A COMBINATION OF INCREASING LARGE SCALE
FORCING...THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL HELP
TO INITIATE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHERN
MO INTO EASTERN OK. WHILE THE COVERAGE WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY
HIGH...THOSE STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL BE IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND 35-45 KNOTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR. SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREAT.
LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING AS
STORMS GROW UPSCALE IN LINES AND CLUSTERS.
LATE TONIGHT...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND CONTINUED BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTENING WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
EAST TX. A STRONGER CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD LIMIT UPDRAFT STRENGTH
WITH ONLY LOW PROBABILITIES OF HAIL CURRENTLY FORECAST.
..HART/COHEN.. 03/04/2011
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