SWODY1
SPC AC 161939
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0239 PM CDT WED MAR 16 2011
VALID 162000Z - 171200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
.CHANGES MADE TO PREV FORECAST...
1. REMOVE GENERAL TSTMS FROM FAR ERN NC.
OTHERWISE...REMAINDER OF FORECAST UNCHANGED.
...ERN NC...
COLD FRONT HAS ESSENTIALLY CLEARED THE OUTERBANKS WITH PRIMARY AXIS
OF INSTABILITY/TSTMS SHIFTING TO THE GULF STREAM. AS A
RESULT...GENERAL TSTMS HAVE BEEN REMOVED.
..RACY.. 03/16/2011
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 AM CDT WED MAR 16 2011/
...PACIFIC NW/NRN CA COASTS INTO THE GREAT BASIN...
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS ANOTHER STRONG VORTICITY MAXIMUM
MOVING ONTO THE NRN CA/ORE COASTS WITH THIS FEATURE TRACKING
GENERALLY EWD THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND
GREAT BASIN DURING THE D1 PERIOD. NOTABLE HEIGHT FALLS/DYNAMIC
COOLING WILL ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM INLAND WHICH WILL EFFECTIVELY
STEEPEN MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND SUPPORT DIURNALLY-ENHANCED TSTM
DEVELOPMENT AT OROGRAPHICALLY-FAVORED LOCATIONS. SOME SMALL HAIL
MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING GIVEN
THE COLD MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURE PROFILES.
...FAR ERN NC...
ADVANCEMENT OF SURFACE COLD FRONT THROUGH REMAINING PORTION OF ERN
NC MAY SLOW TODAY OWING TO INCREASING HEIGHT FALLS ASSOCIATED WITH
AN AMPLIFYING MIDLEVEL TROUGH E OF THE APPALACHIANS. GIVEN THE
MOIST/WEAKLY CAPPED AIR MASS IN PLACE E OF THE FRONT...POTENTIAL
WILL EXIST FOR GULF STREAM TSTM ACTIVITY TO BACKBUILD TO THE
VICINITY OF THE OUTER BANKS THIS AFTERNOON.
...SERN NEW ENGLAND...
AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
IN ADVANCE OF A COMPACT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.
ANY ELEVATED INSTABILITY THAT MAY DEVELOP WILL REMAIN QUITE
SMALL...LIMITING TSTM POTENTIAL TO LESS THAN A 10 PERCENT
PROBABILITY.
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