SWODY1
SPC AC 040036
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0636 PM CST THU MAR 03 2011
VALID 040100Z - 041200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION PERSISTS ACROSS THE ERN GREAT
BASIN INTO THE CNTRL ROCKIES...THOUGH MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT
DEEP ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LIGHTNING. 00Z SOUNDINGS FROM GJT/LKN/RIW
ALL SUPPORT THE ONGOING CONVECTIVE THREAT AS LAPSE RATES ARE VERY
STEEP WITH SBCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 200-300 J/KG. ALTHOUGH DIURNAL
COOLING SHOULD SERVE TO WEAKEN MOST UPDRAFTS...SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY REMAINS TO WARRANT A RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS AT LEAST FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
DOWNSTREAM...GRADUAL MOISTENING WITHIN WARM ADVECTION ZONE ACROSS
THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEY WILL RESULT IN WEAK BUOYANCY BY 12Z.
ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MINIMAL ACROSS
THIS REGION IT/S NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT ISOLATED
STORMS MAY DEVELOP TOWARD SUNRISE ALONG WRN PERIPHERY OF RETREATING
SFC ANTICYCLONE.
..DARROW.. 03/04/2011
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