SWODY1
SPC AC 171254
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0754 AM CDT THU MAR 17 2011
VALID 171300Z - 181200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD CURRENT OF WSW FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER MUCH OF THE
NATION...ON NRN FRINGE OF GULF OF MEXICO RIDGE AND DOWNSTREAM FROM
SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE CLOSED LOW OVER THE E PACIFIC. A SHORTWAVE
IMPULSE WILL MOVE FROM THE NRN PLNS TO THR UPR GRT LKS/SRN ONT. AT
THE SFC...A LOW WILL TRACK FROM NW IA THIS MORNING TO NEAR KSSM THIS
EVE AND INTO SW QUE EARLY FRI. COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW FROM THE LOW
WILL SETTLE S/SE ACROSS THE CNTRL PLNS AND MID MS VLY LATER TODAY
AND TONIGHT.
...MID/UPR MS VLY TO UPR GRT LKS TODAY...
CONVECTION/TSTMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE TODAY FROM NRN/ERN IA
ENE INTO THE UPR GRT LKS...IN AREA OF STRENGTHENING WAA/MOISTURE
INFLOW AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED UPR IMPULSE AND COLD FRONT. STEEP
MID LVL LAPSE RATES AND RELATIVELY COOL PROFILES COULD YIELD A SPOT
OR TWO OF HAIL. BUT RAPID ENE MOTION OF UPR IMPULSE AND ASSOCIATED
VEERING/DOWNSTREAM DEVELOPMENT OF ASSOCIATED WSWLY LLJ AWAY FROM
MOISTURE SUPPLY SUGGEST THAT ANY SUCH ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN ISOLD.
...CNTRL/ERN KS INTO WRN MO TONIGHT/EARLY FRI...
AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS CANADA...ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT WILL BECOME NEARLY STNRY W-E ACROSS SRN KS/MO TONIGHT. AT THE
SAME TIME...WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF GRT LKS JET STREAK WILL OVERSPREAD REGION AS 40 KT SWLY
LLJ DEVELOPS OVER THE SRN PLNS. THIS WILL FOCUS LOW-LVL WAA/
MOISTURE INFLOW ALONG AND N OF FRONT. INCREASING MOISTURE AND STEEP
MID LVL LAPSE RATES WILL BOOST MUCAPE TO NEAR 1000 J/KG...WHILE
CLOUD LAYER SHEAR REACHES 50-60 KTS. THIS ENVIRONMENT COULD
SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SVR HAIL WERE SUSTAINED
TSTMS TO FORM. GIVEN RELATIVELY WEAK UPR LVL FORCING FOR ASCENT...
AND STOUT EML...THE POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED/DEEP STORMS ATTM APPEARS
LOW. BUT AREA WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY THAT
STRONGER/MORE SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS WILL INDEED DEVELOP THAN IS NOW
EXPECTED.
..CORFIDI/JIRAK.. 03/17/2011
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