SWODY1
SPC AC 261255
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0755 AM CDT SAT MAR 26 2011
VALID 261300Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE LWR MS VLY
EWD INTO AL/GA...
...SYNOPSIS...
LARGELY ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE SRN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
NATION THROUGH SUN...SOUTH OF NEARLY STATIC OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN
ANCHORED BY UPR HIGH OVER NRN SK/MB. IN THE ZONAL JET...IMPULSE NOW
OVER THE CNTRL HI PLNS SHOULD REACH MO BY THIS EVE. THE FEATURE
LIKELY WILL DEAMPLIFY AS IT CONTINUES E INTO CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE
OH VLY EARLY SUN. ELSEWHERE...DIFFLUENT NEG TILT TROUGH NOW ALONG
THE W CST SHOULD PROGRESS E INTO THE GRT BASIN/SRN RCKYS BY 12Z SUN.
AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...SUBTROPICAL JET NOW OVER SRN/CNTRL TX MAY
EDGE SLIGHTLY ENE INTO LA AND THE LWR MS VLY.
AT LWR LVLS...LOW NOW OVER SRN OK EXPECTED TO BE SHUNTED ESE ALONG
THE RED RVR TODAY BY SPRAWLING SFC HIGH EXTENDING S FROM MB/WRN ONT.
THE LOW SHOULD REACH THE ARKLATEX BY THIS EVE...BEFORE CONTINUING E
OR ENE INTO N GA EARLY SUN. FRONT EXTENDING E FROM THE LOW MAY MIX
OR EDGE A BIT NWD ACROSS SRN AR AND PARTS OF MS... AL...AND GA LATER
TODAY/TONIGHT...BUT NO WHOLESALE NWD MOVEMENT APPEARS LIKELY. THIS
BOUNDARY...AND PARTS OF THE WARM SECTOR TO ITS S AND SE...SHOULD
SERVE AS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR STRONG/SVR STORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
...SRN/ERN AR AND NRN LA EWD INTO AL/GA/SC...
AFOREMENTIONED WARM/STNRY FRONT WILL BE ALIGNED ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO
40-50 KT DEEP W TO WNWLY SHEAR TODAY AS SFC HEATING AND CONTINUED
MOISTURE INFLOW /WITH PW UP TO 1.25 INCHES/ DESTABILIZE REGION.
THIS SETUP SHOULD PROVE SUPPORTIVE OF SVR STORM
DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING SOME SFC-BASED SUPERCELLS...DURING THE
MIDDAY THROUGH EARLY EVE. STORMS ALSO MAY FORM S OF FRONT...
ESPECIALLY IN AL AND GA...WHERE WSWLY LOW-LVL FLOW WILL IMPINGE ON
SHALLOWER FRONTAL REMNANT OVER REGION.
STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES/EML PLUME AND RELATIVELY COOL PROFILES
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL...ESPECIALLY IN WRN HALF OF SLIGHT
RISK. AND...GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO REMAIN WITHIN ZONE OF
ENHANCED LOW-LVL SHEAR NEAR BOUNDARY....POTENTIAL ALSO WILL EXIST
FOR TORNADOES.
THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY ATTM REGARDING AREA OF GREATEST LOW-LVL
ASCENT AND HEATING ALONG AND S OF THE WARM/STATIONARY FRONT.
SATELLITE/MODEL FCSTS SUGGEST THAT LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT
NEAR THE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN MODEST. BUT COMBINATION OF DIURNAL
HEATING AND CONFLUENT LOW-LVL FLOW SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE
STORMS LATER TODAY. BY EVE...CONVERGENCE ALSO SHOULD INCREASE ALONG
THAT PORTION OF THE BOUNDARY THAT WILL ACCELERATE SE AS A COLD FRONT
IN WAKE OF SFC WAVE. THIS SHOULD FOSTER ADDITIONAL STORM
DEVELOPMENT OVER SRN AR/NRN LA AND MS. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD
MOVE/DEVELOP E INTO GA AND POSSIBLY WRN SC BY EARLY SUN...WITH AT
LEAST A LIMITED THREAT FOR SVR.
...SE KS/NE OK TO NRN/WRN OZARKS...
SCTD ELEVATED STORMS AND RELATED HAIL POTENTIAL LIKELY WILL
PERSIST/SPREAD E ACROSS THE SE KS/SRN MO/NRN AR REGION TODAY...TIED
TO ASCENT/ELEVATED MOISTURE INFLOW WITH IMPULSE MOVING E FROM THE
CNTRL HI PLNS. MUCAPE OF 750-1000 J/KG... 50-60 KT CLOUD-LAYER
SHEAR...AND COOL PROFILES SUGGEST THAT SOME OF THE STORMS COULD
YIELD MARGINALLY SVR HAIL. THE POTENTIAL SHOULD LESSEN THIS EVE AS
UPR SYSTEM SHEARS E INTO THE OH VLY.
..CORFIDI/STOPPKOTTE.. 03/26/2011
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