SWODY1
SPC AC 160041
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0741 PM CDT TUE MAR 15 2011
VALID 160100Z - 161200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...PACIFIC NW...
BROAD UPPER CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION
DURING THE NIGHT. COLD MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES /AOB -20C AT 500 MB/
WILL MAINTAIN STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...WHILE 60+ KT W-SWLY FLOW
AT 6 KM AGL FAVORS SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR STRONG/SVR
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER AIRMASS HAS COOLED AND
STABILIZED...WHICH HAS GREATLY REDUCED THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND SUBSEQUENT SVR WEATHER.
...PORTIONS OF GA AND CAROLINAS...SERN VA...
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SHOWN SIGNS OF UPDRAFT ROTATION OVER CNTRL
GA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD NEWD
DURING THE NIGHT AS DE-AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH MOVES E-NEWD ACROSS
THE OH VALLEY...AND WEAK SURFACE WAVE PROGRESSES ALONG BAROCLINIC
ZONE ALIGNED PARALLEL TO THE CAROLINAS/VA FALL LINE. AS THIS
OCCURS...MID 50S SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL BE DRAWN ONSHORE FROM THE
ATLANTIC...CONTRIBUTING TO WEAK MUCAPE VALUES. THIS INSTABILITY
COULD BECOME JUXTAPOSED WITH STRONG LOW AND DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL
SHEAR PROFILES...POSSIBLY YIELDING AN ISOLATED ORGANIZED/ROTATING
THUNDERSTORM. HOWEVER...COMBINATION OF STRONGEST LARGE-SCALE ASCENT
MOVING AWAY FROM THE REGION...WEAK CYCLOGENETIC RESPONSE AT THE
SURFACE...AND POOR LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT...SUGGESTS THE SVR THREAT
IS TOO MARGINAL TO INTRODUCE SVR WEATHER PROBABILITIES.
..GARNER/GOSS.. 03/16/2011
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