SWODY2
SPC AC 021657
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1057 AM CST WED MAR 02 2011
VALID 031200Z - 041200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
A PROGRESSIVE LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER FLOW REGIME WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE NATION ON THURSDAY...CHARACTERIZED BY A RIDGE SHIFTING EWD
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO ONTARIO/QUEBEC...FOLLOWED BY A SERIES OF
WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN W AND NRN
PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ACCOMPANY THE
NRN PLAINS TROUGH...EXTENDING SWWD FROM THE UPR/MID MS VALLEYS
TOWARD WEAK LOW PRESSURE EMERGING OUT OF THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS.
...GREAT BASIN...CNTRL ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS...
A LOW AMPLITUDE UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EWD FROM THE
GREAT BASIN DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CNTRL
ROCKIES/ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS BY EVENING. COLD MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES
/AOB -20 DEG C AT 500 MB/ WILL CONTRIBUTE TOWARD THE DEVELOPMENT OF
STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES /IN EXCESS OF 8 C PER KM IN THE 700-500
MB LAYER/ AND MUCAPE VALUES UP TO 250 J/KG. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE COLD UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES DURING PEAK HEATING. FARTHER
DOWNSTREAM OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF ERN CO...SURFACE LEE TROUGH
DEVELOPMENT WILL AID IN STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE DURING
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION/STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO BE JUXTAPOSED WITH THE AREA OF
CONVERGENCE...AND WILL ALSO FAVOR SCATTERED CONVECTION AND ISOLATED
LIGHTNING STRIKES.
...MID MS AND OH VALLEYS...
LOW-LEVEL S-SWLY MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE NIGHT
OVER THE MID MS AND OH VALLEYS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.
INCREASING MOISTURE OCCURRING BENEATH MODEST MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
WILL AID IN WEAK DESTABILIZATION AND MUCAPE VALUES GENERALLY AOB 300
J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL
WAA/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
..GARNER/KERR.. 03/02/2011
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