SWODY2
SPC AC 051730
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CST SAT MAR 05 2011
VALID 061200Z - 071200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
ENERGETIC/PROGRESSIVE MID-LEVEL TROUGH -- CROSSING THE OH VALLEY/MID
SOUTH/CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION AT THE START OF THE PERIOD -- WILL
CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
PERIOD...TAKING ON A MORE NEGATIVE TILT WITH TIME. MEANWHILE...AS
THE TROUGH THEN CONTINUES TOWARD THE E COAST OVERNIGHT...A SECOND
TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DIG QUICKLY SEWD OUT OF THE NERN PACIFIC TO THE
W COAST BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. IN BETWEEN...FAST/SEMI-ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT WILL PREVAIL.
AT THE SURFACE...A LOW INITIALLY INVOF WRN SC IS PROGGED TO SHIFT
QUICKLY NNEWD TOWARD SRN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE
EVENING/OVERNIGHT...WHILE THE TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EWD
FROM GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE REGION EARLY TO AN OFFSHORE POSITION
OVERNIGHT. STRONG SHEAR -- BUT MODEST MOISTURE AND VERY LIMITED
INSTABILITY -- AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE LIMITED SEVERE THREAT
FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST STATES NWD TO ROUGHLY THE DELMARVA AREA.
...MID-ATLANTIC COAST SSWWD INTO NRN FL...
SHOWERS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS REGION ALONG WITH SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS -- MAINLY
FROM GA AND THE FL PANHANDLE VICINITY SWD INTO THE GULF. CONVECTION
WILL THEN SWEEP FAIRLY RAPIDLY EWD ALONG/AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD
FRONT...BUT LIMITED BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS INVOF 60 IN
THE WARM SECTOR/ AND FAIRLY WEAK LAPSE RATES OWING TO WIDESPREAD
CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION/MOISTURE ALOFT WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY. THIS
LIMITED INSTABILITY IS PROGGED TO BE AN EFFECTIVE LIMITER OF A MORE
ROBUST SEVERE EVENT...AS SHEAR -- BOTH LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER --
WOULD OTHERWISE SUPPORT MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE/TORNADO THREAT.
WHILE SLIGHT RISK UPGRADE WAS CONSIDERED FROM N FL/GA NWD TOWARD THE
ERN CAROLINAS/SERN VA...ATTM MOISTURE/INSTABILITY CONCERNS PRECLUDE
SUCH ACTION. A FEW SEVERE STORMS -- WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
POTENTIAL AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO -- WILL LIKELY EVOLVE WITHIN
THE LARGER AREA OF GENERALLY WEAKER CONVECTION...BUT PROBABILITY
APPEARS TO REMAIN FAIRLY LOW OVERALL -- BELOW SLIGHT RISK
THRESHOLDS. CONVECTION WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE WITH TIME...LIKELY
DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR THE COASTAL GA/SC REGIONS...BUT LINGERING
OVER ERN NC/ERN VA AND THE DELMARVA REGION INTO THE EVENING.
...WRN FL...
SOMEWHAT GREATER INSTABILITY WILL EXIST OVER THE ERN GULF...BUT MUCH
WEAKER SHEAR IS ANTICIPATED. THUS...WHILE A STRONGER STORM OR TWO
COULD MOVE ONTO THE WRN FL COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON...SEVERE
THREAT APPEARS LIMITED AT BEST.
..GOSS.. 03/05/2011
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