SWODY2
SPC AC 170436
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1136 PM CDT WED MAR 16 2011
VALID 181200Z - 191200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SRN PLAINS...
AN ELONGATED ZONE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL STUBBORNLY HOLD ACROSS
THE GULF STATES INTO THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY2 PERIOD. LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY SUPPRESS HEIGHTS SLIGHTLY
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WHICH MAY ENHANCE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
ALONG/NORTH OF SFC FRONT FROM PORTIONS OF NWRN TX INTO OK.
ALTHOUGH TRAJECTORIES APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE WRN GULF BASIN INTO TX/OK IT APPEARS A
WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER THE NCNTRL GOM WILL SUPPRESS MORE
BOUNTIFUL SFC DEW POINTS FROM SPREADING TOO FAR INLAND AND 50S TO
PERHAPS NEAR 60F READINGS WILL BE NOTED ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR JUST
SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL ZONE OVER NWRN TX/OK/MO. IN THE ABSENCE OF ANY
MEANINGFUL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...IT WOULD SEEM REASONABLE THAT
BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING/CONVERGENCE WILL BE THE PRIMARY INSTIGATOR
FOR POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS ACROSS NWRN TX/SWRN OK WHERE LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN
CONSIDERABLY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST NEAR DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE
RATES ALONG THE DRY LINE WILL ENHANCE THE PROSPECT FOR HIGH BASED
ACTIVITY BY 00Z WITHIN A REGION OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF
30KT. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD STRUGGLE TO ORGANIZE UNTIL POSSIBLY
AFTER DARK WHEN THE LLJ MAY ALLOW CONVECTION TO OVERSPREAD THE
FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS PARTS OF OK. EVEN SO INSTABILITY APPEARS TOO
MEAGER TO WARRANT MORE THAN MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...OR PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL REPORT. OTHERWISE...GUSTY WINDS MAY BE NOTED
WITH DRY LINE ACTIVITY WHERE INITIAL CLOUD BASES WILL BE QUITE HIGH.
...ELSEWHERE...
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE CNTRL ROCKIES WHERE STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL AID UPDRAFT
DEVELOPMENT. OTHER ISOLATED-SCT STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG/NORTH OF
THE COLD FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE OH VALLEY INTO THE CNTRL
APPALACHIANS.
FARTHER WEST...BOUNDARY LAYER CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED NEAR THE
COAST WITHIN A BROADER CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME FROM THE CNTRL CA
COAST...NWD INTO ORE/WA. STEEP LAPSE RATES ACROSS THIS AREA NORTH
OF THE NOTABLE JET CORE SHOULD ENHANCE THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND
PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE PERIOD.
..DARROW.. 03/17/2011
+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-+-
To unsubscribe from WX-STORM send e-mail to LISTSERV@LISTSERV.ILLINOIS.EDU with
"unsub wx-storm" in the body of your message. For more information write cnovy@cox.net.
No comments:
Post a Comment