SWODY2
SPC AC 290459
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1159 PM CDT MON MAR 28 2011
VALID 301200Z - 311200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NRN FL THROUGH SRN GA...
...SYNOPSIS...
UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ACROSS THE PLAINS WEDNESDAY...SHIFTING
INTO THE SERN U.S. OVERNIGHT. IN THE PROCESS...NRN AND SRN STREAMS
WILL MERGE. IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN SUBTROPICAL BRANCH WILL
ACCELERATE EWD THROUGH BASE OF TROUGH INTO THE GULF COASTAL REGION
AND NRN FL. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SERN STATES...WHILE A
WARM FRONT LIFTS NWD THROUGH FL INTO SRN GA.
...SRN PORTION OF GULF COASTAL STATES THROUGH THE CAROLINAS AND
FL...
DEEP LAYER WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE SERN U.S. IN ASSOCIATION
WITH AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH. WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT APPEARS
LIKELY WITH IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH BASE OF TROUGH. ATTENDANT SWLY
LLJ WILL SHIFT FROM THE CNTRL GULF ENEWD THROUGH NRN FL...SRN GA AND
SRN SC DURING THE DAY...MAINTAINING INFLUX OF RICH GULF MOISTURE IN
WARM SECTOR. STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ALONG
WARM CONVEYOR BELT OVER THE GULF COASTAL STATES...DEVELOPING EWD
DURING THE DAY. WARM SECTOR MAY EXPAND NWD INTO SRN GA AND EXTREME
SRN SC...BUT WIDESPREAD CLOUDS...WEAK LAPSE RATES AND AREAS OF
ONGOING RAIN WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY WHICH COULD
SERVE AS A LIMITING FACTOR.
STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER WINDS WILL RESULT IN STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR
ACROSS NRN HALF OF WARM SECTOR. LARGE HODOGRAPHS WILL ALSO EXIST
ALONG MIGRATORY LLJ FROM NRN FL THROUGH SRN GA. BEST CHANCE FOR
SURFACE HEATING APPEARS TO BE ACROSS N-CNTRL FL SWD...WITH MORE
LIMITED BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION FARTHER NORTH. MAIN THREAT
WILL BE FOR BOWING SEGMENTS AND EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITH DAMAGING
WIND AND PERHAPS ISOLATED TORNADOES THE MAIN THREATS.
...SRN TX...
A FEW ELEVATED STORMS COULD DEVELOP OVER SRN-S CNTRL TX WHERE WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL EXIST IN POST FRONTAL ZONE. STEEP LAPSE RATES
AND 500-1000 J/KG MUCAPE AND 35-45 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A
THREAT FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP. WILL
MAINTAIN 5% SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME...BUT A SLIGHT RISK
COULD BE NEEDED IN LATER OUTLOOKS IF IT BEGINS TO APPEAR STORM
COVERAGE WILL BE GREATER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED.
..DIAL.. 03/29/2011
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