DAY2SVR: Nws Storm Prediction Center Norman Ok

ACUS02 KWNS 031721
SWODY2
SPC AC 031720

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1120 AM CST THU MAR 03 2011

VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR ERN OK...WRN/CNTRL AR...SRN
MO...

...ERN OK...WRN/CNTRL AR...SRN MO...
AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG FROM THE CNTRL
ROCKIES SEWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. AS THIS
TAKES PLACE...A PLUME OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES /UP TO 8 C PER
KM IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER/ WILL SPREAD DOWNSTREAM TOWARD THE MS
DELTA REGION. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE INTO ERN OK
AND THE OZARKS OF MO/AR DURING EARLY EVENING...AND THEN PROGRESS
TOWARD THE MID MS VALLEY SWWD INTO ERN TX BY 05/12Z. MID TO UPPER
50S SURFACE DEWPOINTS INITIALLY LOCATED ALONG THE LA GULF COAST WILL
ADVECT NWD BENEATH THE STEEP LAPSE RATE PLUME...AND CONTRIBUTE
TOWARD THE DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE
VALUES UP TO 1000 J PER KG/ ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. INCREASING
FRONTAL CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A MIXED MODE OF
SEMI-DISCRETE STORMS AND LINE SEGMENTS BY LATE AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR NEAR 40 KT AND STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
FAVOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE MS DELTA REGION...30-40 KT S-SWLY LOW-LEVEL
JET WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT.
MOIST WARM SECTOR IS FORECAST TO RESIDE OVER ERN/SRN LA AND WRN/SWRN
MS...WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S AIDING IN MUCAPE VALUES FROM
500-1500 J/KG. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR CELLULAR CONVECTION TO
FORM ALONG AND W OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...AND THIS ACTIVITY COULD ROTATE GIVEN EFFECTIVE SRH NEAR 200
M2 S-2. AS A RESULT...LOW END PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED FOR
ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO.

..GARNER/GOSS.. 03/03/2011

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