SWODY2
SPC AC 161719
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1219 PM CDT WED MAR 16 2011
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...SYNOPSIS...
SRN-BRANCH OF THE POLAR WLYS WILL BECOME LARGELY ZONAL ACROSS THE
LOWER-48 STATES BY THURSDAY WITH AN EVOLVING BROAD UPPER TROUGH
ALONG THE WEST COAST. MINOR AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES WILL EJECT FROM
THIS TROUGH AND ACROSS THE CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY.
MEANWHILE...THE NRN-BRANCH OF THE WLYS WILL CONTAIN A MID-LEVEL WAVE
THAT WILL DIG SEWD TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ON THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL SETTLE SWD INTO THE MID-MS
VALLEY AND CNTRL PLAINS BY 12Z FRIDAY.
...MID-MS VALLEY...
BROAD ZONE OF HEALTHY SURFACE-850 MB SLY FLOW WILL TRANSPORT GULF OF
MEXICO MOISTURE INTO THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS TODAY AND INTO THE MID-MS
VALLEY THURSDAY BENEATH A STRENGTHENING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER. CAP
AND ABSENCE OF MEANINGFUL LARGE-SCALE SUPPORT WILL MAINTAIN
NIL/LOW-RISKS FOR SURFACE-BASED TSTMS THROUGH DAYLIGHT THURSDAY.
TSTM RISKS WILL ESCALATE THURSDAY NIGHT N OF THE COLD FRONT FROM NE
KS TO WCNTRL IL. HERE...MAINTENANCE OF THE SSWLY LOW-LEVEL JET AND
APPROACH OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL WAVE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MOISTENING JUST
ABOVE THE FRONTAL INTERFACE TO RELEASE 500-750 J PER KG OF MUCAPE.
STORMS WILL BE ELEVATED AND EVOLVE IN 7.5 DEG C PER KM LAPSE RATES
AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR 40+ KTS. THIS WILL PROBABLY BE ENOUGH FOR
ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.
..RACY.. 03/16/2011
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