SWOD48
SPC AC 030955
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0355 AM CST THU MAR 03 2011
VALID 061200Z - 111200Z
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEGIN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE OH AND TN VALLEYS SUNDAY MORNING. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE ERN SEABOARD AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH SUNDAY/DAY 4 BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE ATLANTIC. BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE WRN
STATES ON MONDAY/DAY 5. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...THE MODELS BRING
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE NWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS AND MS VALLEY AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TRIES TO CLOSE OFF ON TUESDAY/DAY 6. ASSUMING THE
TIMING OF THE SYSTEM IS REASONABLY FORECAST...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
MAY OCCUR IN THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BUT LIMITED MOISTURE MAY BE PROBLEMATIC. THE MODELS GREATLY
EXPAND CONVECTION TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE MOIST AXIS
MOVES INTO THE MS VALLEY. A SEVERE WEATHER EVENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
WEDNESDAY/DAY 7 IN THE OH AND TN VALLEYS WHERE THE MODELS DEVELOP
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A MOIST AXIS WITH COUPLED LOW-LEVEL AND
MID-LEVEL JETS. CONSIDERED PUTTING A FORECAST AREA OUT FOR THE TN
VALLEY BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH CONCERNING THE MODEL SOLUTIONS.
IF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS SLOWER THAN FORECAST...THE SEVERE
WEATHER EVENING COULD TAKE PLACE IN THE ARKLATEX OR OZARKS.
ATTM...WILL NOT FORECAST A THREAT AREA BUT IF THE MODELS SHOW RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY...AN OUTLOOK AREA APPEARS LIKELY IN LATER OUTLOOKS.
..BROYLES.. 03/03/2011
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