SWOMCD
SPC MCD 061759
NHZ000-VTZ000-MAZ000-NYZ000-PAZ000-062200-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0195
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1159 AM CST SUN MAR 06 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL/NERN PA...ERN NY...FAR WRN
MA...SRN/CNTRL VT...CNTRL NH
CONCERNING...FREEZING RAIN
VALID 061759Z - 062200Z
NARROW ZONE OF FREEZING RAIN EXPECTED WITH RATES POSSIBLY EXCEEDING
0.05 IN/HR ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL/NERN PA...ERN NY/FAR WRN
MA...SRN/CNTRL VT AND CNTRL NH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH WARM CONVEYOR BELT WILL
CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND THROUGH
THE EVENING AS AN UPPER DISTURBANCE OVER THE SERN CONUS LIFTS NEWD.
MEANWHILE...RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 140+ KT UPPER JET WILL SLOWLY
MOVE NWD OVER QUEBEC. THOUGH MOST AREAS ARE EXPERIENCING
TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING AT 18Z...COMBINATION OF THERMALLY DIRECT
CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER JET AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING THE DELMARVA AREA IS FORECAST TO CAUSE SUB-FREEZING
SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO SPREAD SWD OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS...MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
WARM NOSE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ABOVE COLD SURFACE AIRMASS. THIS
SHOULD FAVOR A TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN...WITH RATES POSSIBLY
EXCEEDING 0.05 IN/HR...PARTICULARLY AS ASCENT INCREASES WITHIN THE
EXIT REGION OF 50+ KT LLJ TRANSLATING ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
..GARNER.. 03/06/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...
LAT...LON 44327276 44587147 44197104 43637128 42927224 40157686
40317804 41057780 42997532 44327276
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