MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0227

ACUS11 KWNS 142237
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 142237
GAZ000-ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-150000-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0227
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0537 PM CDT MON MAR 14 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF NW GA...AL...SRN MS AND WRN FL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 50...

VALID 142237Z - 150000Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 50
CONTINUES.

HOWEVER...THE THREAT APPEARS TO BE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING...AND A NEW
WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

A PRE-COLD FRONTAL SQUALL LINE CONTINUES TO ADVANCE EASTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN/CENTRAL ALABAMA AND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AT AROUND 30
KT...AND WILL CLEAR THE REMAINDER OF THE WATCH WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR
OR SO. TO THIS POINT...IT APPEARS THAT THE SEVERE THREAT HAS BEEN
LIMITED WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AND THERE SEEMS LITTLE TO SUGGEST
SIGNIFICANT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION WILL OCCUR. MOISTURE CONTENT
WITHIN THE EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL INFLOW LAYER DECREASES WITH EASTWARD
EXTENT ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF STATES. AND...THE GENERAL MODEST
NATURE OF THE WIND FIELDS AND SHEAR WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
SURFACE LOW MIGRATING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY PROBABLY IS LIMITING
THE STRENGTH OF THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SQUALL LINE GUST FRONT.

THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL
SPEED MAXIMUM NOSING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA TOWARD THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER CLOSED LOW NOW
BEGINNING TO TURN EAST OF THE OZARK PLATEAU...COULD AT LEAST
MAINTAIN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL ALABAMA
INTO THE ATLANTA METRO AREA BETWEEN NOW AND 01-02Z. WHILE GUSTY
WINDS MAY CONTINUE TO ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY...IT SEEMS PROBABLE
THAT PEAK SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW 50 KTS.

..KERR.. 03/14/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...HUN...MOB...LIX...

LAT...LON 30588927 31328839 31928763 32618712 33488666 34238645
34638643 34738573 34398465 33598445 31578596 30668736
30498846 30588927

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