SWOMCD
SPC MCD 180735
CAZ000-181000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0229
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0235 AM CDT FRI MAR 18 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL NRN CA
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 180735Z - 181000Z
ORGANIZED LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE ONSHORE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...AND MAY BE CAPABLE OF
LOCAL GUSTS NEAR -- OR SLIGHTLY EXCEEDING -- SEVERE LEVELS.
FRONTAL BAND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED LOW-TOPPED STORMS CONTINUES
APPROACHING THE NRN CA COAST...AND REMAINS FAIRLY WELL-ORGANIZED.
THOUGH LIGHTNING HAS INCREASED OFFSHORE OVER THE PAST
HOUR...MODIFYING NAM AND RUC MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR
TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT OBSERVATIONS NEAR THE COAST SUGGESTS
INSTABILITY GENERALLY INSUFFICIENT FOR LIGHTNING. THIS IS ALSO
CONFIRMED BY OBJECTIVE ANALYSES...REVEALING ONLY OFFSHORE CAPE.
HOWEVER...WITH THE FRONT MOVING ONSHORE /EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST
BETWEEN 0830 AND 0900 Z/ AND GIVEN THE ORGANIZED NATURE OF THE
CONVECTION...A FEW STRONGER CONVECTIVE GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE LOCALLY
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...BEFORE CONVECTION WEAKENS INLAND. ANY
SEVERE POTENTIAL...THOUGH...IS EXPECTED REMAIN LIMITED IN BOTH
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY -- THUS NOT REQUIRING WW ISSUANCE.
..GOSS.. 03/18/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...EKA...
LAT...LON 41652471 41902434 41832401 41292389 41062398 40842398
40562417 40202416 39522430 39102528 39832517 40192492
40662496 41102475 41622477 41652471
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