SWOMCD
SPC MCD 182253
TXZ000-190130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0232
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0553 PM CDT FRI MAR 18 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF W CNTRL TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 182253Z - 190130Z
STRONG STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE
DISSIPATING BY LATE EVENING. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL OR WIND GUSTS
MAY OCCUR...BUT THERE SHOULD NOT BE ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT.
STRONG HEATING HAS RESULTED IN VERY STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATE PROFILES OVER SW TX S OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WAS
DECELERATING. WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN SCATTERED STRONG STORMS.
WIND PROFILES ALOFT ARE GENERALLY WEAK WITH SOME RIDGINESS WITH LESS
THAN 30 KTS OF MID LEVEL FLOW NOTED ON AREA PROFILERS. IN
ADDITION...WINDS IN THE LOWEST FEW KM ARE WEAK AS WELL...WHICH DOES
NOT LEND SUPPORT TO UPSCALE GROWTH. HOWEVER...A SELY LOW LEVEL JET
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AFTER SUNSET...WHICH MAY PUSH THE EFFECTIVE
BOUNDARY A BIT FARTHER N ACROSS THE S PLAINS. WHILE THIS MAY ALLOW
FOR ISOLATED STORMS TO PERSIST THROUGH ABOUT 06Z...THE THREAT IS NOT
EXPECTED TO WARRANT A WATCH.
..JEWELL.. 03/18/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...LUB...MAF...
LAT...LON 33030205 33240092 33009931 32699893 31859899 31699989
31110176 30530247 30590278 31240276 32120270 32470247
33030205
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