SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222020
KSZ000-OKZ000-222145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0248
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0320 PM CDT TUE MAR 22 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND NRN OK...SE KS
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 222020Z - 222145Z
AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT MAY DEVELOP FROM SCNTRL OK NNEWD INTO SE
KS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IF STORMS CAN INITIATE...LARGE HAIL AND FEW
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AND A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY.
LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A DRYLINE WHICH IS ADVANCING QUICKLY EWD
ACROSS WCNTRL OK AND CNTRL KS. AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE...SBCAPE VALUES
ARE ESTIMATED FROM 1200 TO 1800 J/KG BUT THE AIRMASS REMAINS CAPPED.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS WEAKEN THE CAP LATE THIS AFTERNOON WHICH COMBINED
WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE MAY RESULT IN STORM INITIATION.
HOWEVER...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD REMAIN WEAK AND THE CONVECTIVE
THREAT REMAINS CONDITIONAL. IF A FEW STORMS CAN INITIATE...STRONG
DEEP LAYER SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT SIDE OF AN 70 TO 85 KT
MID-LEVEL JET WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR SEVERE STORMS. SUPERCELLS MAY
DEVELOP ESPECIALLY IF AN UPDRAFT CAN MATURE IN SPITE OF THE WEAK
FORCING. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD RESULT IN A THREAT FOR
LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE MAY ALSO OCCUR WITH ANY STORM
THAT CAN BECOME SUSTAINED.
..BROYLES.. 03/22/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...
LAT...LON 36329591 35079668 34709716 34629758 34629804 34869822
35149814 36239781 37059759 37329750 37509735 37549699
37489630 37159590 36329591
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