SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222049
MIZ000-WIZ000-MNZ000-230145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0249
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0349 PM CDT TUE MAR 22 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF E-CNTRL AND NERN MN/CNTRL AND NRN
WI/WRN UPPER MI
CONCERNING...WINTER MIXED PRECIPITATION
VALID 222049Z - 230145Z
WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL OVERSPREAD PORTIONS OF E-CNTRL AND NERN
MN...NRN WI...AND WRN UPPER MI LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.
SNOWFALL WITH RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS
NERN/E-CNTRL MN...NRN WI...AND WRN UPPER MI...WHILE FREEZING RAIN
RATES OF 0.05 IN/HR WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL WI.
PRECIPITATION IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN INTENSE STORM SYSTEM
TRANSLATING EWD ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL SPREAD NEWD LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. INCREASING ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH
LOW/MID-LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS INVOF A BAROCLINIC ZONE DRAPED E-SEWD
ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE
FURTHER ENHANCED BY THE AGEOSTROPHIC CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH A
COUPLED UPPER-LEVEL JET STRUCTURE. THESE FACTORS WILL HELP FOCUS A
NEWD-MOVING BAND OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AFTER 23Z.
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES ENE OF STC TO 15 MILES NNE OF
MTW...FREEZING RAIN /WITH RATES OF 0.05 IN PER HOUR/ AND SLEET WILL
BE POSSIBLE...GIVEN SUBFREEZING SFC TEMPERATURES AND ELEVATED
WARM-LAYER TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 800 AND 700 MB FROM 1 TO 3 C. AS
PRECIPITATION SPREADS NORTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LINE AFTER
01Z...RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT SUBFREEZING TEMPERATURES
THROUGHOUT THE TROPOSPHERE WILL SUPPORT SNOW BEING THE PREDOMINANT
PRECIP TYPE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW GIVEN SATURATED
ASCENT THROUGH THE 50-MB DEEP DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE CENTERED JUST
BELOW THE 500-MB LEVEL. RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACCORDING TO THE 15Z RUN OF THE SREF...WITH THE HIGHEST
SNOWFALL RATES EXPECTED AROUND ANY LIGHTNING-PRODUCING ELEVATED
CONVECTION /MUCAPE VALUES AOA 100 J PER KG ACCORDING TO THE RUC
MODEL ACROSS CNTRL AND NRN WI AND E-CNTRL MN/. THE PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.
..COHEN.. 03/22/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...MKX...DLH...ARX...MPX...FGF...
LAT...LON 46989491 47559455 47689368 47259133 46838941 46008694
45118671 44088725 43848828 44609104 45319310 46419463
46989491
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