SWOMCD
SPC MCD 232020
INZ000-ILZ000-232145-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0260
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0320 PM CDT WED MAR 23 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL IND/E-CNTRL IL
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 232020Z - 232145Z
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STRONG STORMS COULD POSE A THREAT FOR SMALL
HAIL THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL IND/E-CNTRL IL. A WW IS
NOT EXPECTED ATTM.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE INVOF
THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS CNTRL IND/E-CNTRL
IL...WHERE A RECENT UPWARD TREND IN CU DEVELOPMENT HAS BEEN NOTED IN
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. AS A MID-LEVEL COLD CORE CROSSES THE AREA
/500-MB TEMPS AROUND -26 C PER RUC OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS/...STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AOA 7.5 C/KM WILL SUPPORT MUCAPE VALUES AOA
1000 J/KG. THIS WILL COMBINE WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES OF
40 TO 50 KT TO PROMOTE SOME STORM ORGANIZATION WITH AN ATTENDANT
THREAT FOR SMALL HAIL. HOWEVER...WITH SFC OBSERVATIONS DEPICTING
MARKED BOUNDARY-LAYER DRYING /DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S AND 40S/...THE
DEGREE OF SURFACE-BASED UPWARD BUOYANCY IS NOT FORECAST TO
SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASE...WITH MOST HAILSTONES EXPECTED TO BE SMALL.
THUS...A WW IS NOT EXPECTED ATTM.
..COHEN.. 03/23/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...
LAT...LON 39798504 39588589 39698751 40298821 40918771 41098639
40878537 40488493 39798504
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