SWOMCD
SPC MCD 260440
ARZ000-OKZ000-260545-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0273
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1140 PM CDT FRI MAR 25 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...PART OF EAST CENTRAL/NERN OK INTO NWRN AR
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 260440Z - 260545Z
A THREAT FOR ISOLATED HAIL...SOME APPROACHING SEVERE LEVELS...WILL
BE POSSIBLE FROM EAST CENTRAL/NERN OK INTO NWRN AR DURING THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. INITIAL COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED...THOUGH
GREATER STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING /AFTER 09Z/ ACROSS NERN OK/SERN KS/SWRN MO/NWRN AR. THIS
LATTER POTENTIAL MAY WARRANT THE ISSUANCE OF A SEVERE WEATHER WATCH.
AT 0430Z...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED CONVECTION CONTINUING TO
DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR IN EAST CENTRAL OK TO
NWRN AR...WITH LIGHTNING DATA INDICATING SEVERAL RECENT STRIKES IN
THIS AREA. THIS ACTIVITY IS DEVELOPING JUST N OF WW 61 WITHIN THE
NOSE OF A 30-40 KT SSWLY LLJ...WHERE WAA IS MAXIMIZED ALONG THE 850
MB THERMAL BOUNDARY/WARM FRONT. GREATER POTENTIAL FOR LARGER HAIL
IS EXPECTED WITHIN WW 61...WHILE FARTHER N OVER THIS DISCUSSION
AREA...WEAKER INSTABILITY AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST THE HAIL
THREAT SHOULD BE LESS IN THE SHORT TERM.
HOWEVER...AS SOMEWHAT GREATER HEIGHT FALLS/FORCING SPREAD EWD AHEAD
OF A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS OVERNIGHT...STORM COVERAGE SHOULD
INCREASE MAINLY AFTER 09Z. STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...
INCREASING INSTABILITY /MUCAPE TO AT LEAST 1000 J PER KG/ AND
FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR WITH NWD EXTENT
SUGGEST A GREATER SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.
..PETERS.. 03/26/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...
LAT...LON 35999292 35349395 35269576 35399613 35949593 36319488
36329328 35999292
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