SWOMCD
SPC MCD 262133
ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-262230-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0281
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0433 PM CDT SAT MAR 26 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN TX...NWRN LA AND SWRN AR
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
VALID 262133Z - 262230Z
PARTS OF ERN TX INTO NWRN LA/SWRN AR ARE BEING MONITORED FOR A
POSSIBLE SEVERE TSTM WATCH ISSUANCE LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY/LIGHTNING DATA SHOWED A COUPLE OF STRONGER
TSTMS HAD DEVELOPED SINCE 20Z OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TX /THE COUNTIES OF
BANDERA TO BLANCO AND TRAVIS/. SO FAR...HAIL PRODUCED BY THESE
STORMS HAVE BEEN SUB-SEVERE. IN ADDITION...VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWED CU/TCU DEVELOPING ALONG A DRY LINE EXTENDING SWWD
FROM EXTREME SWRN AR INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TX...JUST WEST OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED STORMS. OBJECTIVE ANALYSES INDICATED STRONGER DEEP
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER NERN TX AND SOUTH CENTRAL TX WHERE CU
APPEARS TO HAVE GREATER VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT.
THE AIR MASS ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRY LINE IS MODERATELY UNSTABLE
/MLCAPE 1500-2500 J PER KG/...WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR 40-50 KT
ORIENTED PERPENDICULAR TO THE DRY LINE SUPPORTIVE FOR ORGANIZED
ROTATING UPDRAFTS. DESPITE THE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMICS AND DEEP
LAYER SHEAR...WEAK LOW LEVEL WINDS EAST OF THE DRY LINE AND GIVEN
THAT THE FLOW IS VEERED IS BOTH LIMITING CONVERGENCE AND OVERALL LOW
LEVEL SHEAR FOR A TORNADO THREAT. HOWEVER...ANY STORM THAT CAN
BECOME SUSTAINED WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE ISOLATED HAIL
AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. FURTHER LIMITATION FOR GREATER TSTM COVERAGE
IS THE APPARENT LACK OF MID-UPPER LEVEL FORCING.
..PETERS.. 03/26/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...LZK...LCH...SHV...HGX...FWD...EWX...
LAT...LON 29669955 30809773 31989641 33319488 33749412 33519297
33029288 31869298 29969505 29339664 29249824 29669955
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