SWOMCD
SPC MCD 272324
GAZ000-FLZ000-ALZ000-280130-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0296
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0624 PM CDT SUN MAR 27 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SRN PORTIONS GA/AL...EXTREME NRN FL...FL
PANHANDLE.
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 69...
VALID 272324Z - 280130Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 69
CONTINUES.
BAND OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS
ERN PORTIONS WW...WHILE A FEW EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL WILL MOVE ESEWD. WW MAY BE CLEARED N OF GA PORTION WHERE
GREATER TSTM COVERAGE HAS MORE STRONGLY STABILIZED BOUNDARY LAYER.
S-CENTRAL AL PORTIONS WW...ADJACENT TO FL BORDER...SHOULD BE
MAINTAINED BECAUSE...
1. AIR MASS THERE HAS NOT BEEN SUBSTANTIALLY STABILIZED BY PRIOR
CONVECTION...WITH 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE EVIDENT IN MODIFIED RUC
SOUNDINGS S OF FRONT...AND
2. CONVECTION INCREASING IN COVERAGE N OF MOB DURING PAST HOUR MAY
MOVE IN AND NEAR WW AREA BEFORE SCHEDULED 03Z EXPIRATION.
SFC MESOANALYSIS SHOWS WAVY COLD FRONT...WITH A COUPLE OF
WEAK/ATTACHED MESOLOWS...FROM MIDDLE PORTIONS GA COAST WWD TO NEAR
TOI...TO JUST N GZH...TO NEAR MCB. WITH FLOW ALOFT BEING NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THIS BOUNDARY...AND NO SUBSTANTIAL PERTURBATIONS BEHIND
WEAK TROUGH PASSING OVER SERN GA...FRONT SHOULD DRIFT SLOWLY SWD
ACROSS SERN GA WHILE BECOMING QUASISTATIONARY ELSEWHERE. LARGE HAIL
WILL REMAIN DOMINANT SVR THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY...MUCH OF WHICH
IS MOVING ATOP SHALLOW OUTFLOW AIR LEFT BY PRIOR CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...MOST INTENSE CONVECTION MAY PRODUCE A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS
AS WELL AS IT CROSSES AREAS ON EITHER SIDE OF NRN BORDER OF FL.
AFTER 00Z...COMBINATION OF POSTFRONTAL CAA AND DIABATIC COOLING WILL
REINFORCE STATIC STABILITY OVER S-CENTRAL/SERN GA...AND FROM N-S
ACROSS SRN AL. MEANWHILE...AVAILABLE BUOYANCY AT AND JUST ABOVE
SFC...AMIDST 45-55 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES...SHOULD SUPPORT
POTENTIAL FOR HAIL-PRODUCING SUPERCELLS.
..EDWARDS.. 03/27/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...CHS...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB...
LAT...LON 30688146 30318185 29768261 29508341 29658343 29758358
29978376 30098407 29588500 29708522 29688539 29908539
30238592 30388653 30328721 30258772 30678819 31448843
31588711 31848473 31798106 30688146
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