MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0305

ACUS11 KWNS 292140
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292139
FLZ000-292245-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0305
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0439 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN FL PENINSULA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 292139Z - 292245Z

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SRN FL PENINSULA
THROUGH AROUND 00Z. THE ISOLATED NATURE OF ANY SEVERE ACTIVITY
PRECLUDES THE ISSUANCE OF A WW.

INTENSIFYING STORMS OVER SRN PALM BEACH COUNTY ARE BEING ENHANCED BY
MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR /40 KT OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR BASED ON VWP
AT AMX/ WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J PER KG ACCORDING TO RUC
ANALYSIS. SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES HAVE BEEN NOTED WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...AND LEFT-MOVERS WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF PALM
BEACH COUNTY OVER THE NEXT HOUR WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL
/QUARTER SIZE HAIL REPORTED WITH OTHER CONVECTION EARLIER IN
MIAMI-DADE COUNTY/ AND GUSTY WINDS /47-MPH GUST REPORTED NEAR WESTON
IN BROWARD COUNTY/.

FARTHER SOUTH...CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS OF THE SRN
FL PENINSULA EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON HAS GENERATED AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY THAT IS SURGING SWD TOWARD THE TIP OF THE SRN PENINSULA.
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY
SHALLOW AS IT OUTRUNS PARENT CONVECTION...WITH AN OVERALL WEAKENING
TREND ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...IF A STORM INITIATES OVER FAR SRN
MIAMI-DADE/MAINLAND MONROE COUNTIES...IT COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
OR SMALL HAIL.

NEAR-SURFACE CONVERGENCE EXTENDS FARTHER TO THE NORTH/WEST ALONG THE
SWRN COAST OF FL INVOF THE SEA BREEZE...WITH A RECENT UPWARD TREND
IN CONVECTION NOTED OVER COLLIER COUNTY. WITH LITTLE CONTAMINATION
FROM THE COLD POOL GENERATED BY STORMS FARTHER TO THE
SOUTH...ACTIVITY ALONG THE SWRN FL SEA BREEZE COULD CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY. GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
ACTIVITY.

DIABATIC COOLING WILL ALLOW STORMS TO WEAKEN AFTER 00Z. THE ISOLATED
NATURE OF ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW.

..COHEN.. 03/29/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MFL...TBW...

LAT...LON 25488010 25188058 25318118 25608143 26058176 26478177
26748112 26868065 26858009 26407997 25488010

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