MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0306

ACUS11 KWNS 292226
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 292226
MSZ000-ARZ000-LAZ000-TXZ000-300030-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0306
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0526 PM CDT TUE MAR 29 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN/E-CNTRL TX...NRN LA...SRN AR...W-CNTRL/CNTRL
MS

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 292226Z - 300030Z

THE THREAT FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LARGE HAIL WILL
OCCUR ACROSS NERN/E-CNTRL TX...SRN AR...NRN LA...AND W-CNTRL/CNTRL
MS THROUGH THIS EVENING. A SEVERE TSTM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED.

ELEVATED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO INITIATE AND DEEPEN ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NERN/E-CNTRL TX INTO NRN LA IN RESPONSE TO A BROAD AREA OF
LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT TO THE NORTH OF THE SFC FRONT DRAPED
ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY REGION. THE MOST ROBUST CONVECTIVE
INITIATION IS NOTED WITHIN A 30-MILE-WIDE ZONE CENTERED ALONG A LINE
FROM 40 MILES NNE OF LFK TO 35 MILES SW OF MLU...WHICH COINCIDES
WITH A LOW-LEVEL CONFLUENCE AXIS EVIDENT IN KINEMATIC FIELDS BASED
ON REGIONAL PROFILER DATA. THIS ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...ESPECIALLY AS ASCENT INCREASES WITH THE APPROACH OF A
MID-LEVEL WAVE CURRENTLY CROSSING KS/OK EVIDENT IN WV IMAGERY. AS
WARM ADVECTION ATOP THE NEAR-SURFACE COLD LAYER CONTINUES AND
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN...ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE
WITH MUCAPE VALUES AOA 500 J PER KG OVERSPREADING THE DISCUSSION
AREA THROUGH THE EVENING...ALLOWING FOR CONVECTION TO INTENSIFY WITH
TIME. MODERATE MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR
MAGNITUDES OF 40 TO 50 KT...POTENTIALLY YIELDING ELEVATED SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES WITH A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
MAY BE NEEDED TO THE NORTH OF TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 72.

..COHEN.. 03/29/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...SHV...

LAT...LON 33249393 33539280 33939116 33878953 32828926 32379003
32199122 32029191 31709304 31489419 31669469 32189508
32919475 33249393

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