SWODY1
SPC AC 080043
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0743 PM CDT THU APR 07 2011
VALID 080100Z - 081200Z
...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
...KS/MO/IL...
HIGH BASED CONVECTION HAS BECOME A BIT MORE ORGANIZED FROM NERN
CO...SEWD INTO SWRN KS AHEAD OF PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS
FEATURE SHOULD ENCOURAGE EWD MOVEMENT/DEVELOPMENT OF TSTMS ACROSS KS
INTO MO DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS LLJ IMPINGES ON FRONTAL ZONE
DRAPED FROM NEAR DDC TO SOUTH OF MKC TO NEAR STL. 00Z SOUNDING FROM
TOP SUPPORTS THIS SCENARIO WITH MUCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 400-500 J/KG
IF LIFTING A PARCEL NEAR 850MB. GIVEN THE WARM ADVECTION NOTED
ACROSS THIS REGION IT SEEMS REASONABLE THAT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
COULD DEVELOP ALONG/NORTH OF THE WIND SHIFT AND THE STRONGEST
UPDRAFTS MAY YET PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL OR PERHAPS HAIL TO
NEAR ONE INCH...ALTHOUGH THIS SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED.
...ELSEWHERE...
SCATTERED CONVECTION IS NOTED IN VARIOUS REGIONS OF THE WEST FROM
PORTIONS OF CA BENEATH THE STRONG UPPER LOW...ACROSS THE INTERIOR
WEST INTO PARTS OF SD ALONG A NOTABLE FRONTAL ZONE. MUCH OF THE WRN
ACTIVITY SHOULD WEAKEN WITH LOSS OF HEATING WHILE THE FRONTAL
CONVECTION MAY LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
..DARROW.. 04/08/2011
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