SWODY2
SPC AC 080541
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1241 AM CDT FRI APR 08 2011
VALID 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
PLAINS...CNTRL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE OH
VALLEY...SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS AND CAROLINAS...
...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST IS FORECAST TO
MOVE INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION SATURDAY. WELL AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM...A LOW-LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN IN THE SCNTRL STATES. THIS
WILL HELP TO ESTABLISH A BROAD MOIST AXIS ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS
AND MS VALLEY WHERE MODERATE INSTABILITY APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS A WELL-DEVELOPED MID-LEVEL JET MOVES OUT INTO
THE CNTRL PLAINS...THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR MOST LIKELY TO DEVELOP IN
THE EXIT REGION OF THE JET ACROSS THE MID-MO VALLEY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON SPREADING NEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST SATURDAY EVENING.
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO MAY DEVELOP SWD ALONG A DRYLINE SATURDAY EVENING
FROM CNTRL KS INTO WRN OK AND NW TX.
THE MID-LEVEL JET SHOULD RESULT IN A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT
ACROSS MOST OF THE GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST MAKING CONDITIONS
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. AN ENHANCED SEVERE THREAT MAY
DEVELOP FROM NE KS NNEWD ACROSS ERN NEB...IA AND SRN MN WHERE
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE GREATER SATURDAY EVENING. A
FEW TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
MORE ORGANIZED CELLS. THE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WITH THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY AND
AN ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL THREAT MAY DEVELOP FROM ERN NEB NEWD
INTO SW WI. THE SEVERE THREAT ALONG THE DRYLINE SHOULD BE
INCREASINGLY ISOLATED WITH SWD EXTENT BUT HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE THERE.
...OH VALLEY/SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS/CAROLINAS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ERN
STATES SATURDAY WITH NWLY FLOW LOCATED FROM THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS
SEWD ACROSS THE CAROLINAS. MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD EXIST FROM
THE OH VALLEY SEWD INTO THE CAROLINAS WHERE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD INITIATE AROUND MIDDAY SATURDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG THIS CORRIDOR SHOW MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP LAYER
SHEAR PROFILES WITH SOME DIRECTIONAL SHEAR SUGGESTS CONDITIONS WILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S F AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE EVIDENT ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS WOULD
BE SUFFICIENT FOR A WIND DAMAGE THREAT. IF SUPERCELLS CAN
ORGANIZE...THEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT AND HAIL THREAT WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE.
..BROYLES.. 04/08/2011
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