SWOD48
SPC AC 080848
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0348 AM CDT FRI APR 08 2011
VALID 111200Z - 161200Z
THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEGIN THE DAY 4 TO 8 PERIOD WITH A POWERFUL
UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY. THE MODELS MOVE THIS
FEATURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY/DAY 4. AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE ERN
SEABOARD MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH
MONDAY NIGHT AS THE MOIST AXIS MOVES OFFSHORE. ON TUESDAY/DAY
5...THE MODELS MOVE A LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE SWRN
STATES WHICH SHOULD ENCOURAGE MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS.
BY WEDNESDAY/DAY 6...SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SRN
PLAINS ALONG AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY BUT THE MAGNITUDE OF
THE THREAT SHOULD BE DETERMINED BY THE TIMING OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH. AT THIS POINT...THE ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH IS SLOWER...LOOKS
TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON THE SYSTEM. THIS SLOWER SOLUTION WOULD
NOT BE AS FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE SRN PLAINS BECAUSE THE
INCREASE IN LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WOULD BE DELAYED UNTIL WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. IF THIS SLOWER SOLUTION WORKS OUT...THEN A SEVERE THREAT
COULD EXIST ON THURSDAY/DAY 7 AND FRIDAY/DAY 8 IN THE ARKLATEX AND
LOWER MS VALLEY. ATTM...NO AREAS WILL BE OUTLOOKED ACROSS THE CONUS
MAINLY DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES CONCERNING SEVERE THREAT COVERAGE AND
THE TIMING OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DURING THE MID-WEEK.
..BROYLES.. 04/08/2011
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