SWOMCD
SPC MCD 032259
MOZ000-KSZ000-040000-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0328
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0559 PM CDT SUN APR 03 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...ERN KS...NWRN MO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 032259Z - 040000Z
TSTM WILL INCREASE...GENERALLY AFTER 00Z ACROSS CNTRL/NERN KS AND
EVENTUALLY NWRN MO. SHOULD STORMS BECOME ESTABLISHED... THREATS FOR
VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE LIKELY WITH A LOW
PROBABILITY FOR TORNADOES. WW ISSUANCE IS LIKELY; 50-70 PERCENT.
TOWERING CUMULUS OVER DICKENSON COUNTY KS APPEARS TO BE A SIGN OF
STORM INITIATION...LOCATED JUST N OF THE SEWD MOVING COLD FRONT.
20Z SPECIAL TOP SOUNDING WAS CAPPED...BUT AS BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO IMPROVE AND LEADING EDGE OF LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ARRIVES
THIS EVENING...PROBABILITY FOR TSTM INITIATION ALONG/N OF THE FRONT
WILL INCREASE.
VERY LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT OWING TO THE
NEARLY 9 DEG C PER KM H7-H5 LAPSE RATES AND 45 KTS OF VERTICAL
SHEAR. PARCELS MAY NEED THE BOOST FROM THE FRONT TO REACH
LFC...RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED STORMS. HOWEVER...IF A STORM
CAN INITIATE RIGHT ALONG THE BOUNDARY...THERE WILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY
FOR DAMAGING WINDS/ISOLD TORNADOES EARLY THIS EVENING.
THEREAFTER...ORIENTATION OF THE COLD FRONT WITH RESPECT TO THE WSWLY
VERTICAL SHEAR VECTORS SUGGEST UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT INTO LINE
SEGMENTS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL THEN MOVE ESE INTO NWRN MO/ECNTRL KS
LATER THIS EVENING WITH POSSIBLE BOWS GIVING DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL.
..RACY.. 04/03/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...EAX...TOP...ICT...
LAT...LON 38499788 38969769 39649615 39949494 39659427 38909444
38259524 37939701 37899810 38469791 38499788
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