MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0416

ACUS11 KWNS 112244
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 112243
NYZ000-PAZ000-NJZ000-MDZ000-112345-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0416
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0543 PM CDT MON APR 11 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...MD/CNTRL AND ERN PA/CNTRL AND ERN NY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 112243Z - 112345Z

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DMGG WINDS MAY DEVELOP FROM MD NWD
INTO PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN NY. GIVEN EXPECTED TRENDS AT THE
MOMENT...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED...BUT THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED.

STRONG DIURNAL HEATING AND LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME HAS LED
TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...WHILE DEW
POINTS IN THE LOWER 60S HAVE REACHED MD/ERN PA...AND MID TO UPPER
50S FARTHER N. HOWEVER...APPEARANCE OF GENERALLY STRATUS
CLOUDS...LACK OF TOWERING CU/CONVECTIVE TYPE CLOUD STRUCTURES ON
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LACK OF LIGHTNING WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF CNTRL NY INDICATES THAT STRONG CONVECTIVE INHIBITION STILL
REMAINS. PER RECENT WV IMAGERY...AN UPPER TROUGH AND IMPLIED UPPER
ASCENT STILL REMAINS WEST OF THE AREA OVER SERN ONTARIO SWD INTO THE
OH VALLEY...AND GIVEN NEUTRAL TO WEAK HEIGHT FALLS THROUGH PEAK
DIURNAL HEATING...MAY HAVE ALSO LIMITED MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...RECENT RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT A
PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH CNTRL NY SWD INTO ERN PA THEN
SWWD THROUGH WV MAY PROVIDE SUFFICIENT FORCING FOR ASCENT...ALLOWING
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WHERE CINH IS WEAKER. ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION MAY BE POSSIBLE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER WAVE/HEIGHT
FALLS AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT QUICKLY APPROACH FROM THE
WEST...THOUGH RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL LIKELY LIMIT A MORE
WIDESPREAD THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...SHOULD STORMS
DEVELOP...STRONG WIND FIELDS WOULD SUPPORT DMGG WINDS.

..HURLBUT.. 04/11/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX...

LAT...LON 40127576 39347715 39857767 41497727 43357589 43807469
43717370 42387398 40127576

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