MESO: Mesoscale Discussion 0423

ACUS11 KWNS 130324
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 130323
NYZ000-CTZ000-NJZ000-130500-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0423
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1023 PM CDT TUE APR 12 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/NRN NJ...SERN NY...LONG ISLAND...SRN/WRN CT

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 130323Z - 130500Z

STORMS MAY IMPACT NEW YORK CITY WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...
HOWEVER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS.

VIGOROUS CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELEVATED BAND OF WARM
ADVECTION APPEARS LIKELY TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING NORTHWARD ALONG THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST INTO THE GREATER NEW YORK CITY AREA
BETWEEN NOW AND 05-06Z...BEFORE WEAKENING. THIS IS OCCURRING ABOVE
A RELATIVELY DEEP NEAR SURFACE STABLE LAYER...TO THE NORTH OF A
SURFACE WARM FRONT THAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH/EAST OF COASTAL
AREAS. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MOISTURE RETURN ABOVE THE FRONTAL
INVERSION APPEAR TO BE CONTRIBUTING TO WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY
WITH MOST UNSTABLE CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG...WHICH MAY
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A RISK FOR SMALL TO PERHAPS BRIEFLY
MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. HOWEVER...DESPITE FAIRLY RAPID STORM MOTION
IN EXCESS OF 40 KT...THE LARGER SCALE ENVIRONMENT DOES NOT APPEAR
CONDUCIVE TO AN APPRECIABLE RISK FOR STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

..KERR.. 04/13/2011

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...

LAT...LON 40477461 41087460 41507349 41197251 40617242 40207305
40197420 40477461

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