SWOMCD
SPC MCD 212252
COZ000-WYZ000-UTZ000-212345-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0509
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0552 PM CDT THU APR 21 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...FAR NERN UT AND S-CNTRL WY...NWRN CO
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 212252Z - 212345Z
POTENT UPPER SHORTWAVE /OBSERVED IN RECENT VAPOR IMAGERY/ CURRENTLY
POSITIONED OVER CNTRL UT CONTINUES TO PROGRESS EWD...WITH STRONG
MOIST ASCENT AND MIDLEVEL CAA SPREADING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE INTO
THE CNTRL ROCKIES. THIS HAS SUPPORTED ONGOING ISO-SCT THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE REGION...WITH RECENT RADAR TRENDS INDICATING A FEW
EXHIBITING LOW-TOPPED SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS AT TIMES. THE
ENVIRONMENT NEAR THESE STORMS IS CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG EFFECTIVE
BULK WIND SHEAR OF 50+ KTS...ALONG WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES
OF 8-9 DEG C/KM. THE PRIMARY LIMITING FACTORS FOR MORE ROBUST
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT CONTINUE TO BE A DRY BOUNDARY LAYER /DEW
POINTS GENERALLY IN THE 30S/ WHICH WILL ONLY YIELD MLCAPE VALUES
AROUND 250-500 J/KG. HOWEVER...A THREAT FOR MARGINALLY SVR HAIL AND
DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HRS...BUT DUE TO THE
EXPECTED ISOLATED COVERAGE A WW WILL NOT BE NEEDED.
..ROGERS.. 04/21/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...CYS...RIW...GJT...
LAT...LON 39120600 38890725 38980853 39170965 39690980 40550963
41290845 41650702 41690635 41570587 40970509 40460488
39890511 39470524 39120600
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