SWOMCD
SPC MCD 220215
TXZ000-220315-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0511
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0915 PM CDT THU APR 21 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...W-CNTRL AND NW TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 176...
VALID 220215Z - 220315Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 176
CONTINUES.
A BIMODAL SVR THREAT HAS EVOLVED OVER PORTIONS OF W AND CNTRL TX
THIS EVENING. THE FIRST AREA OF FOCUS IS ALONG A NWD RETREATING WARM
FRONT...WHERE AN ONGOING RIGHT-MOVING HP SUPERCELL IS PRIMARILY
AFFECTING FISHER AND JONES COUNTIES TX...WITH A CONFIRMED TORNADO
REPORTED. ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED TO THE NW
OF THIS STORM...WITH APPARENT NEWD PROPAGATION CONTERMINOUS TO THE
WARM FRONT. AS LLJ STRENGTHENS OVER THE NEXT FEW HRS AND FOCUSES
LOW-LEVEL WAA ALONG AND N OF THE WARM FRONT...STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES MAY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISOLATED ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SVR HAIL.
FARTHER S...A BROKEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS SLOWLY WEAKENING
ACROSS SUTTON COUNTY TX. THE BOUNDARY LAYER DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS
LINE HAS STABILIZED WITH THE LOSS OF DIABATIC HEATING AND THE
PRESENCE OF AN 800 MB INVERSION LAYER /PER 00Z DRT SOUNDING/. GIVEN
THE PRESENCE OF STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...A MARGINAL THREAT FOR
SVR HAIL MAY EXIST SHOULD THUNDERSTORMS BE MAINTAINED EWD.
WW 176 IS CURRENTLY SET TO EXPIRE AT 03Z...BUT A LOCAL EXTENSION IN
TIME COULD BE CONSIDERED BY LOCAL WFOS FOR A PORTION OF THE WATCH
SHOULD THE SVR THREAT PERSIST PAST THIS TIME. AN ADDITIONAL WW IS
NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED ATTM DUE TO THE EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE
OF ANY THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL/DMGG WINDS...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
..ROGERS.. 04/22/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...EWX...SJT...LUB...MAF...
LAT...LON 29150074 29710139 29750219 29990241 32770096 33690051
34129961 34049888 33849857 31899899 29150074
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