SWOMCD
SPC MCD 222243
TXZ000-OKZ000-230015-
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0522
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0543 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2011
AREAS AFFECTED...WRN N TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 222243Z - 230015Z
A WATCH IS LIKELY TO BE NEEDED OVER WRN N TX WHERE STORM INITIATION
IS LIKELY SOON. VERY LARGE HAIL...ALONG WITH STRONG OUTFLOW ARE
LIKELY.
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDING SWWD AHEAD OF
A STALLING COLD FRONT FROM CNTRL OK INTO NWRN TX. LOW TO MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES HAVE BECOME VERY STEEP AS A RESULT OF HEATING AND LITTLE
IF ANY CONVECTIVE INHIBITION EXISTS.
DUE TO STRONG VERTICAL MIXING...DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED INTO THE
UPPER 50S NEAR THE DRYLINE. HOWEVER...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE
NEAR 1.50 INCHES NEAR DENTON...WHERE LOW CLOUDS HAMPERED MIXING
TODAY.
AS STORMS FORM NEAR THE HEAT...THEY WILL LIKELY TRAVEL ESEWD INTO A
VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. WHILE LOW LEVEL T/TD SPREADS WILL FAVOR
OUTFLOW PRODUCTION AND GUSTY WINDS AND MAY HAMPER TORNADO
POTENTIAL...FAVORABLE WLY FLOW ALOFT...COMBINED WITH AN INCREASING
LOW LEVEL JET THIS EVENING SHOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUSTAIN
SUPERCELLS WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING EXTREMELY LARGE HAIL.
..JEWELL.. 04/22/2011
...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...
LAT...LON 32190039 33249946 33749898 34019834 33839722 33519674
32939701 32149755 32019815 31889884 31919979 32190039
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